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Sep 1 at 1:27AM
Great article Eric! This looks quite similar to the relatively successful (for me anyway) approach that I use for TFF (slightly differentt game but the principles guiding largely still apply). Like the maths data breakdown, though after all the beautiful game of football is still a wonderfully unpredictable live game. Looking forward to the season starting. All the best
Aug 2 at 12:59PM
Some interesting ideas here which I think will help me plan my team. I note that in the template you had 5 premium players(in Captain), but in the sample team you only had 4 premiums. I assume with your example the formula is slightly adjusted and the ‘swap’ players now need an average of 193 points each (not actually much difference). Given the prices of some premium players 5 premiums is a little unrealistic, but 4 or even 3 could work well.
Aug 2 at 3:8PM
Exactly. The number of “locks” is meant to be a guideline rather than a rule. The overall lesson is to trust your best players to do what they do, and to focus your transfers on your other players.
Aug 2 at 2:41PM
did this last season, did not work for me… still interesting concept
Aug 2 at 7:9PM
What misfired for you? I’ve never tried this strategy, so I’m curious.
Aug 2 at 7:22PM
If you’re on Twitter I encourage you to chat with @ FPLmidclassboss. He scored 2501 points last season using this strategy. As with any strategy, it’s all about execution.
Aug 2 at 4:54PM
Strikes me that this is almost diametrically opposed to the “upside chasing” strategy promoted by Lateriser (and his followers), which seems to consist largely of regularly switching between the premium big hitters to catch the nice fixtures and captain them. Thoughts on this observation? And why is your strategy better (in your opinion)?
Aug 2 at 5:21PM
Hi Matthew! You’re right, the Lock & Swap is the opposite of Upside Chasing. I’ve spoken with Lateriser and others who use the Upside Chasing strategy about it and I really admire what they do. I wouldn’t say that one strategy is necessarily better than another. It’s a matter of finding a strategy that magnifies your strengths and covers your weaknesses.
Upside Chasing requires someone to maintain control of their team in the midst of chaos (i.e. short-term transfer plans and a constant restructuring of teams around premium-priced players), and also the ability to reliably predict big hauls. I’m not very good at that, so I don’t try to be and Upside Chaser.
Lock & Swap requires patience and discipline over the reliable factors of their team (i.e. their best players), and also the ability to predict moderate returns (i.e 5+ points) among the budget and mid-tier players, usually due to an easy run of fixtures.
It all depends on your personality and style. Pick a strategy that’s right for you and commit to it. Too often we get hurt ourselves by trying to do a little bit of every strategy available, when these strategies are often not compatible.
Aug 2 at 5:32PM
Thanks Eric – I think I’m more your style!
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