<p>In this edition of Breaking the FPL Template for Double Gameweek 31, <a href="https://twitter.com/Hibbo_FPL">@Hibbo_FPL</a> examines the best week to play remaining Free Hit chips as the Fantasy Premier League season approaches endgame.</p>
<p>This article will provide FPL tips to help managers break the template and achieve that desirable top 10k finish. All data used is courtesy of the <a href="https://fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/opta?via=hibbo">Hub&#8217;s OPTA Stats tool</a>.</p>
<h2>Chip Strategy: Breaking The FPL Template | Double Gameweek 31</h2>
<p>As the season-state for FPL managers moves to endgame, this international break lull feels like the calm before the storm. An unappetising Double Gameweek 31 bears the hallmarks of a trap, with FPL managers focusing limited transfers on high-quality assets.</p>
<p>Before recess, the penultimate piece of the scheduling puzzle fell into place following the completion of the FA Cup quarter-finals. The confirmation of Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Manchester City, and Liverpool as semi-finalists confirmed the make-up of Double Gameweek 33.</p>
<p>Seven teams will play twice: Arsenal, Brighton, Burnley, Leicester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United and Southampton.</p>
<p>Furthermore, three teams are guaranteed to blank in Double Gameweek 33: Aston Villa, Leeds United and Wolverhampton Wanderers.</p>
<p>This confirmed slate has piqued the interest of FPL managers seeking to strategically optimise returns from their final “chips”. Currently, 45% of top 10k managers have used four chips, with possession of only the second Free Hit the common position.</p>
<p>The advantages &amp; disadvantages of playing the Free Hit chip in Double Gameweek 33 compared to a latter “double” has been a hot topic. I examine the respective merits of the Free Hit debate, with long-term strategy taking precedent over the immediate Double Gameweek 31.</p>
<p>I have pulled data together to identify how many Double Gameweek 33 options top 10k managers currently own. The average top 10k manager owns 5 “double” players with Arsenal’s <strong>Bukayo Saka (£6.7m)</strong> and <strong>Aaron Ramsdale (£5.1m)</strong> highly owned.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-45168 size-full alignnone" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Capture.jpg" alt="fpl double gameweek 33 - Player Ownership Data" width="551" height="575" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Capture.jpg 551w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Capture-287x300.jpg 287w" sizes="(max-width: 551px) 100vw, 551px" /></p>
<h2>Free Hit 33: Breaking The FPL Template | Double Gameweek 31</h2>
<p>The differential status of key targets from Manchester United and Newcastle United provides an opportunity to gain on the field.</p>
<p>Manchester United are a team in transition, but rank fourth for expected goals (25.5) since Rangnick’s appointment before Gameweek 15.</p>
<p>Doubling-up on <strong>Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.2m)</strong> and <strong>Bruno Fernandes (£11.6m)</strong> appeals against Norwich, who rank worst this season for expected goals conceded (58.9). Liverpool will provide a stern test for the Red Devils however, ranking joint-second best for expected goals conceded (28.8) this term.</p>
<p>Recently, Newcastle have demonstrated defensive improvement, ranking 13th for expected goals conceded (31.1) since the appointment of Eddie Howe. A home double-header against Leicester City and Crystal Palace brings <strong>Matt Targett (£4.7m)</strong>, <strong>Fabian Schar (£4.3m), </strong>and<strong> Chris Wood (£6.7m)</strong> into focus.</p>
<p>An ideal Free Hit team for Double Gameweek 33 would comprise assets from: Arsenal, Leicester, Newcastle, and Manchester United. Focusing transfers on high-quality long-term assets from top teams is a benefit of the Double Gameweek 33 Free Hit.</p>
<p>Early wildcarders who slalomed an outrageous schedule of blank and double gameweeks seek a reunion with now differential big hitters.  <strong>Joao Cancelo (£6.9m)</strong>, <strong>Reece James (£6.2m)</strong>, and <strong>Andrew Robertson (£7.3m)</strong> are trending with managers shifting to &#8220;big at the back”.</p>
<p>Committing to a Double Gameweek 33 Free Hit means opposing highly-owned single gameweek assets however, which could significantly minimise potential gains.</p>
<p><strong>Mohamed Salah (£13.3m)</strong> highlighted his fixture-proof status with a superb hat-trick in the reverse Manchester United fixture. Spurs and Manchester City face Brighton in tantalising home ties for <strong>Harry Kane (£12.5m)</strong>, <strong>Heung-Min Son (£10.9m)</strong>, and <strong>Phil Foden (£7.8m)</strong>.</p>
<p>Managers could navigate by adding doublers <strong>Harvey Barnes (£6.6m)</strong> and <strong>James Maddison (£6.8m)</strong>, Manchester City defenders, and Manchester United attacking options.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-45170 size-full alignnone" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/FFStuffImage-44.png" alt="fpl double gameweek 33 Expected Goals Per Player: Season Data" width="760" height="433" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/FFStuffImage-44.png 760w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/FFStuffImage-44-300x171.png 300w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/FFStuffImage-44-610x348.png 610w" sizes="(max-width: 760px) 100vw, 760px" /></p>
<h2>Free Hit 36/37: Breaking The FPL Template | Double Gameweek 31</h2>
<p>Double Gameweek 36 is forecast to be the biggest “double” of the season with up to ten teams playing twice. Notably, the following “big” teams with desirable long-term assets should play twice: Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs.</p>
<p>It could be argued that playing the Free Hit chip in Double Gameweek 36 may be low-ceiling, as assets likely to “double” are already highly owned. Furthermore, the lack of blank gameweeks post Double Gameweek 33 make these assets more attainable than in previous seasons.</p>
<p>A solid Double Gameweek 36 team is achievable with transfers, but the chip provides insurance from injuries or a fixture “curveball”. Holding the Free Hit chip for Double Gameweek 36 will give maximum information before the biggest “double” to defend against freshly wildcarded teams.</p>
<p>Should Manchester City secure a double against Newcastle and Wolves, those on free-hit could make a calculated expected minutes gamble on two attackers. Spurs are forecasted to double against Liverpool and Arsenal, but with attractive fixtures on either side, managers could sell on Free-Hit.</p>
<p>Similarly, Chelsea could have a mythical triple-gameweek, and despite questions over minutes, this would make their assets a must-have. Double Gameweek 37 could see the following seven teams double: Aston Villa, Leicester, Leeds, Everton, Watford, Burnley and Norwich.</p>
<p>The quality of these sides is questionable, and strong single-gameweek sides such as Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs have favourable fixtures. Furthermore, the teams that double may lack motivation late in the season, with relegation confirmed or mid-table mediocrity achieved.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-45169 size-full alignnone" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/FFStuffImage-43.png" alt="double gameweek 33 Expected Goals Per Team: Season Data" width="760" height="433" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/FFStuffImage-43.png 760w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/FFStuffImage-43-300x171.png 300w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/FFStuffImage-43-610x348.png 610w" sizes="(max-width: 760px) 100vw, 760px" /></p>
<h2>Conclusion:</h2>
<p>In conclusion, the strategy you adopt will be influenced by your current position, proximity to target rank, and appetite for risk.</p>
<p>Playing the Free Hit in either 33 or 37 is a higher-risk play, involving backing unfashionable assets over dangerous single-gameweek options.</p>
<p>Arguably, holding the Free Hit for Double Gameweek 36 possibly dilutes the impact of the chip-making it low-ceiling. On paper, it seems the sensible play for the risk-averse manager in a solid rank position.</p>
<p>Best of luck for Double Gameweek 31 – if you like the content, but are not a member of Fantasy Football Hub, sign up below!</p>
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Breaking The Template | FPL Tips for Double Gameweek 31

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