<p>In this edition of Breaking the FPL Template for Double Gameweek 32, <a href="https://twitter.com/Hibbo_FPL">@Hibbo_FPL</a> examines team motivation as the Fantasy Premier League season run-in begins.</p>
<p>This article will provide FPL tips to help managers break the template and achieve that desirable top 10k finish. All data used is courtesy of the <a href="https://fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/opta?via=hibbo">Hub&#8217;s OPTA Stats tool</a>.</p>
<h2>Title Race: Breaking The FPL Template Gameweek 32</h2>
<p>As the Fantasy Premier League season reaches “crunch-time” I examine the league state, to determine which teams have motivation. This article involves an analysis of historical expected goal data to identify team motivation trends, and the impact on underlying performance.</p>
<p>Manchester City and Liverpool have a stranglehold on this season&#8217;s Premier League, with the Citizens holding a slender one-point lead. Both clubs have exactly eight league games remaining, and face off against one another in a high-stakes table-topping GW32 thriller.</p>
<p>Popular elo-ratings suggest that Manchester City have a 65% chance to win the league, with Liverpool rated a 35% chance. The best result for FPL managers is a Liverpool win or a draw, leaving the title race on a knife-edge.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-45361 size-large" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Screenshot-2022-04-07-at-12.51.21-1024x833.jpg" alt="lfc mcfc fpl" width="1024" height="833" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Screenshot-2022-04-07-at-12.51.21-1024x833.jpg 1024w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Screenshot-2022-04-07-at-12.51.21-300x244.jpg 300w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Screenshot-2022-04-07-at-12.51.21-768x625.jpg 768w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Screenshot-2022-04-07-at-12.51.21-610x496.jpg 610w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Screenshot-2022-04-07-at-12.51.21.jpg 1064w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></p>
<p>Motivation for both sides and strong fixtures post-Gameweek 32 bodes well for investment in their assets. While <strong>Mohamed Salah (£13.3m)</strong>, <strong>Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.4m)</strong> and <strong>Andrew Robertson (£7.3m)</strong> will not break the template, Man City assets certainly will.</p>
<p>Investment in a “high-floor” Manchester City defensive double-up of <strong>Joao Cancelo (£7.0m) </strong>and <strong>Aymeric Laporte (£5.8m)</strong> might be prudent. Furthermore, <strong>Kevin De Bruyne (£11.7m)</strong> ranks joint-best among midfielders for FPL points (48) over the last six, representing a high-ceiling differential.</p>
<p>Notably, historical data from the last two seasons shows that Manchester City and Liverpool eased-up when the league was secured.  In attack last season, Manchester City’s minutes per expected goal slowed from 51 minutes (GW1-31) to 58 minutes (GW32-28).</p>
<p>Defensively, the Citizen’s late-season minutes per expected goal conceded tanked from 124.7 minutes (GW1-31) to 83.9 minutes (GW32-38). Liverpool’s wide-margin procession to league glory in the 19/20 season led to a similar dip in late season output.</p>
<p>Offensively, the Reds accumulated expected goals at a slower rate, dropping from 49.5 minutes (GW1-31) to 64.2 minutes (GW32-38). Defensively, Liverpool’s decline in minutes per expected goal conceded was sharp, rising from 101.9 minutes (GW1-31) to 73.1 minutes (GW32-38).</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-45351 size-full" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/1-1.jpg" alt="fpl gameweek 32 Premier League Title Race 2020/2021: Expected Goal Data" width="1624" height="180" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/1-1.jpg 1624w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/1-1-300x33.jpg 300w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/1-1-1024x113.jpg 1024w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/1-1-768x85.jpg 768w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/1-1-1536x170.jpg 1536w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/1-1-610x68.jpg 610w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/1-1-1080x120.jpg 1080w" sizes="(max-width: 1624px) 100vw, 1624px" /></p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-45352 size-full" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/2.jpg" alt="fpl gameweek 32 Premier League Title Race 2019/2020: Expected Goal Data Comparison" width="1460" height="153" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/2.jpg 1460w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/2-300x31.jpg 300w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/2-1024x107.jpg 1024w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/2-768x80.jpg 768w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/2-610x64.jpg 610w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/2-1080x113.jpg 1080w" sizes="(max-width: 1460px) 100vw, 1460px" /></p>
<h2></h2>
<h2>Relegation Zone: Breaking The FPL Template Gameweek 32</h2>
<p>The Premier League relegation battle is intensifying with the main candidates as follows: Norwich, Watford, Everton, Burnley and Leeds. Popular elo-ratings make Norwich virtual certainties for relegation (99%) with Watford currently the second-most fancied to drop down (83%).</p>
<p>Burnley’s spirited 3-2 win over Everton did FPL managers a favour in terms of keeping relegation zone motivation alive. Everton rate as a 48% relegation chance, and while their assets have a numerical fixture advantage, managers should tread carefully.</p>
<p>The Toffees rank fourth-worst on Hub’s ticker over the next four gameweeks, facing Manchester United, Leicester, Liverpool, and Chelsea. Over the same period, Burnley rank second-best on Hub’s ticker, boasting favourable ties against Norwich, Southampton, West Ham, Wolves and Watford.</p>
<p>FPL managers planning a late bench-boost with <strong>Jordan Pickford (£4.9m)</strong>, <strong>Anthony Gordon (£4.6m)</strong>, and <strong>Richarlison (£7.5m)</strong> could be scuppered if relegation worries deepen. Historical data from the last two seasons shows primarily an alarming drop in expected goal production from relegation candidates.</p>
<p>Last season, Sheffield United suffered a downturn in minutes per expected goals from 104.4 minutes (GW1-31) to 133.5 minutes (GW32-28). Norwich capitulated in the 2019/2020 season with their minutes per expected goal tanking from 91.1 minutes (GW1-31) to 159.4 minutes (GW32-28).</p>
<p>Notably, in both of the past two seasons, Brighton have dropped-off in terms of both expected goals production and concession. Similarly, data shows that those in the relegation zone conceded expected goals at a quicker rate during the run-in.</p>
<p>Brighton, Watford, and Norwich all quickened their rate of expected goal concession by 10 minutes or more in 2019/2020. Last season, both Fulham and West Bromwich Albion suffered a downturn in expected goals conceded by 10 minutes or more.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-45347 size-full" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/3.png" alt="fpl gameweek 32 Premier League Relegation Zone 2020/2021: Expected Goal Data" width="1445" height="233" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/3.png 1445w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/3-300x48.png 300w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/3-1024x165.png 1024w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/3-768x124.png 768w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/3-610x98.png 610w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/3-1080x174.png 1080w" sizes="(max-width: 1445px) 100vw, 1445px" /></p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-45348 size-full" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/4.png" alt="fpl gameweek 32 Premier League Relegation Zone 2019/2020: Expected Goal Data" width="1448" height="231" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/4.png 1448w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/4-300x48.png 300w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/4-1024x163.png 1024w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/4-768x123.png 768w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/4-610x97.png 610w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/4-1080x172.png 1080w" sizes="(max-width: 1448px) 100vw, 1448px" /></p>
<h2>Champions League Chase: Breaking The FPL Template Gameweek 32</h2>
<p>Chelsea sit in third with a five point lead over Spurs, a game in hand, and healthier goal difference. The Blues rate a comfortable 97% chance of Champions League qualification, but the 3-1 drubbing by Real Madrid brings league motivation to the fore.</p>
<p>Chelsea assets are desirable, with the Blues ranking second on Hub’s overall fixture ticker from now till season-end. Chelsea boast back-to-back “doubles” in 36 &amp; 37 with favourable fixtures on either side bringing <strong>Reece James (£6.2m)</strong>, <strong>Antonio Rudiger (£6.1m)</strong>, and <strong>Kai Havertz (£7.9m)</strong> into focus.</p>
<p>Spurs and Arsenal are level on points in the fight for the final Champions League spot, and while Arsenal have an additional fixture, Spurs boast superior goal difference. Spurs rate as a 44% chance for Champions League qualification, boasting strong fixtures over the next four: Aston Villa, Brighton, Brentford and Leicester.</p>
<p><strong>Harry Kane (£12.5m)</strong>, <strong>Heung-Mon Son (£10.9m)</strong>, <strong>Dejan Kulusevski (£6.3m)</strong>, and <strong>Matt Doherty (£4.9m)</strong> warrant inclusion for a piece of Spurs’ high-performing attack. In contrast, Arsenal’s recent defeat to Crystal Palace highlighted some failings in their quest for a return to Europe’s elite.</p>
<p>The Gunners have favourable fixtures over the next four, but face Chelsea and Manchester United which could swing the balance. The historical data for Champions League chasing teams over the last two seasons highlights the importance of league state.</p>
<p>Last season, five out of six teams in the sample quickened their minutes per expected goal production, seemingly at the expense of defensive solidity. Notably, league points were tighter last season compared to 2019/2020, when Manchester United and Chelsea held a more dominant position.</p>
<p>In 2019/2020, Spurs &amp; Wolves finished six points off Champions League qualification, suffering a downturn in minutes per expected goal.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-45355 size-full" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/5-1.jpg" alt="fpl gameweek 32 Premier League Champions League Chase 2020/2021: Expected Goal Data" width="1424" height="259" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/5-1.jpg 1424w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/5-1-300x55.jpg 300w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/5-1-1024x186.jpg 1024w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/5-1-768x140.jpg 768w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/5-1-610x111.jpg 610w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/5-1-1080x196.jpg 1080w" sizes="(max-width: 1424px) 100vw, 1424px" /></p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-45356 size-full" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/6-1.jpg" alt="fpl gameweek 32 Premier League Champions League Chase 2019/2020: Expected Goal Data" width="1449" height="260" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/6-1.jpg 1449w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/6-1-300x54.jpg 300w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/6-1-1024x184.jpg 1024w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/6-1-768x138.jpg 768w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/6-1-610x109.jpg 610w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/6-1-1080x194.jpg 1080w" sizes="(max-width: 1449px) 100vw, 1449px" /></p>
<h2></h2>
<h2>Conclusion: Breaking The FPL Template Gameweek 32</h2>
<p>While the outcome of past events is no guarantee of future results, this exercise provides managers with food for thought.</p>
<p>It is a stark reminder that ultimately we should consider three factors when assessing team motivation: league state, present performance, and most importantly – fixtures.</p>
<p>Understanding a team’s current position, and taking a fixture-led approach to their prospective position, can give FPL managers an edge. Accurately forecasting the future position of a team can prevent FPL assets from ageing rapidly when transfers are most precious.</p>

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Breaking The Template | FPL Tips for Gameweek 32

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