Euro 2020 Fantasy Football Tips – Forwards

Jian Batra presents “Restructuring the Team and the Manager”, an article which focuses on both the official Euro 2020 and FanTeam games, in specific the value of the forwards, why it’s a different game to Fantasy Premier League and how to navigate this.

The theories presented in the article below are all completely my own opinion, neither the theories nor the evidence are particularly main stream, nonetheless, I strongly feel given my research on the Euro 2020 fantasy game, that the approach needed to be successful is far different than that of Fantasy Premier League.

Midfielders aren’t the best value for money assets nor do they present the highest ceiling, further they have increased risk attached in comparison to their role in Fantasy Premier League as I discuss in detail below.

The Spine

When you refer to “the spine” of a team you often think, goalkeeper, centre back, central midfielder and a striker. Chelsea’s old guard come to mind with Didier Drogba, Frank Lampard, John Terry (and Petr Cech).

However, the spine of your Euro 2020 fantasy team should potentially look very different. In this case I feel like instead of having four players to cover each category of position within a football team and the fantasy structure, the predominant figures should be stacked in and amongst the forward category, with money also justifiably spent on Kevin De Bruyne to complete “the spine”.

Find our Euro 2020 Team Previews here which will be updated daily as the competition draws closer!

Less goals in international football?

Why? The points are heavily favoured towards the forwards. International football tends to be slightly lower scoring when the better footballing countries on the planet meet, in comparison to the weekly fixtures in the Premier League.

Euro 2016 is an excellent reference point, I understand that those fixtures were played five years ago however I haven’t seen a shift in football tactically when it comes to the big game approach on the international stage, so don’t imagine it will be too different this time around.

As an example, Wales and Hungary averaged two goals per game in the group stage, the highest of any team, and there was a very low average of 1.92 goals per game in the group stage.

Compare this to club football where we have gone from an era of the top teams employing possession-based philosophies to pressing and a more physical footballing approach, there is a very clear distinction between the two forms of football.

Coaches don’t often have enough time to implement their preferred style onto their international teams and as such patterns of play when attacking are slightly less refined and efficient.

Therefore, there is what could be described as a slight over reliance on the strikers and so-called better players in the team producing moments of individual brilliance to score, rather than coordinated and structured attacking moves with many players involved.

Within the international teams, the players who are likely to be called upon in this moment are predominantly all Forwards, the likes of Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku, Cristiano Ronaldo etc. spring to mind.

Euro 2020 Fantasy Football – The Premium Midfielders

The premium midfielders are in a different position compared to where they are in Fantasy Premier League. Kevin De Bruyne is exempt of the discouraging words regarding the midfielders, and I go into why later.

However, there simply aren’t the likes of the Mohamed Salah’s in Euro 2020 fantasy in terms of players with similar point scoring opportunities.

Taking the example of Bruno Fernandes, he won’t have the same impact on the Portugal side as he does for Manchester Utd, as Utd are far more reliant on him for end product, and of course he doesn’t have penalties for Portugal. Further I suspect he plays in a deeper underlying role with Portugal potentially lining up in a 4-3-3 with two 8s (whilst Bruno will be the more attacking one out of the two, he by definition will have a less central area to occupy thereby diminishing chances of an attacking return, will drop deeper to collect the ball to start moves rather than be on the end of them and will have increased defensive responsibility).

Other premium candidates such as Eden Hazard and Raheem Sterling haven’t hit a stride of form, and as such I think players in the lower price points such as Diogo Jota and Phil Foden would provide better value.

As discussed previously I don’t expect a goals fest, in the group stage at least, so defenders will most certainly be a place to look at for great value.

However, I want to focus more on the “spine” of the team, and as such below I discuss five forwards and Kevin De Bruyne, with the forwards ranked in terms of preference, as I believe there are multiple avenues to navigate towards a successful defence. I will potentially be releasing an article on defenders later, so please do let me know if this is something you would like.

I believe the optimal strategy is a minimum of two premium forwards out of the five below (and Kevin De Bruyne). This is not to say there is no value in the midfielder picks, of course there is, however there is a pool of mediocre options in comparison to the forwards.

Again, I may write an article on midfielders so please let me know if this is something you would like.

Are you playing the official Euro 2020 Fantasy Football game? You can view our How to Play Euro 2020 Fantasy Football Guide here with everything you need to have a successful competition.

How To Play Euro 2020 Fantasy Football

Euro 2020 Fantasy Football – The Five Best Forwards:

1. Harry Kane ( Official game – €11.5M, FanTeam – €13.5M), England

The man who won the Golden Boot at the Russia World Cup, the Golden Boot (23 goals) and the Playmaker of the season award (14 assists) this campaign. Further he scored in both games he started in the previous international break against Poland and Albania highlighting his involvement and importance in the side.

Given the above and his scintillating form he should be an absolute banker for the group stages at a minimum, and regardless he offers an easy route to the options discussed below or you will have unlimited transfers after the group stages to remove him, should things go sideways for him or England.

Looking at him individually his biggest strength as a fantasy asset is the high probability of goal involvement.

Whilst England fans would love to see Gareth Southgate line up in an attacking manner, I suspect there is a relatively high chance we see a 3-4-3, 4-2-3-1 or a 4-3-3 (with two number 6’s, e.g., Declan Rice and Kalvin Phillips/Jordan Henderson as opposed to two 8’s playing, e.g., Mason Mount and Jude Bellingham/Jack Grealish).

Euro 2020 fantasy football tips forwards

This puts a greater dependence on Kane as a source of attacking output, combine this with the fact he’s on penalties, good from set pieces due to his aerial ability, takes the occasional free kick, drops in the pockets so wingers can act as runners (similar to his partnership with Son Heung Min), increasing his assist potential and a ridiculous finishing ability, I personally expect him to end the tournament with the most points.

In terms of fixtures, I wouldn’t say there is a single easy fixture in this particular group. Rather two games in the form of Scotland and Czech Republic where I expect Kane to return, but highly doubt England put upwards of four goals past them.

Both will almost certainly adopt a low block structure; however, I think England and more importantly Kane could find more joy in the Czech Republic fixture.

Where Scotland will very likely employ a 5-3-2 structure off the ball, Czech Republic are likely to go 4-4-2, which is easier to break down but by no means easy. I expect a lot of crosses from England in both games (of which Kane will be the intended recipient), to counter their opponents’ defensive structures and due to Southgate’s preferred formula of using full/wing backs to create the majority of opportunities.

Kane also never plays on the first or last day of a matchday so the risk attached with captaining him diminishes in comparison to the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo. (Not applicable to FanTeam)

Recommendation – Buy him.

2. Romelu Lukaku (Official game – €11M, FanTeam – €11.5M), Belgium (and Kevin De Bruyne (Official game – €5M, FanTeam – €12.5M))

In so many ways, I see so many similarities between Lukaku and Kane as fantasy assets. Lukaku ended the league campaign with the 2^nd most goals (24) and assists (11), he also scored in his two previous appearances in the last international break, he will definitely start all games and is by far Belgium’s best striker.

Further his general involvement in the play, whilst it is to a slightly lesser extent than Kane is still very apparent and alongside Kevin De Bruyne, you can expect him to have some form of involvement in every attack.

Belgium are a seriously talented side, and well deserving of their status of being ranked the number one side in the world. Belgium will line up in a 3-4-3 or 3-4-2-1 depending on the instructions Martinez gives his wide forward players, and very similar to England’s approach, there will be a large quantity of crosses, with Lukaku being the intended recipient.

With the ball being delivered by the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Thomas Meunier, the service will be of a very high standard. Lukaku can make goals by himself and with Kevin De Bruyne behind him I feel quite literally he could score from any situation should De Bruyne continuously express his quality.

In terms of opposition, I am very bullish regarding the fixtures against Russia (Matchday 1) and Finland (Matchday 3). Finland conceded three goals to Switzerland in their last game whilst lining up in an original 3-5-2 formation highlighting how weak they are defensively, having read some match reports it appears the Swiss striker Gavranovic had a very successful outing not just in terms of the goal he scored, but also performance which is a positive for Lukaku.

Russia have failed to keep a clean sheet since 14^th October 2020 and shipped five to Serbia in that period.

De Bruyne managed 12 assists and 6 goals in the league this season in only 1995 minutes, but I wouldn’t expect any less from the best midfielder on the planet. He’s integral to everything Belgium do, he can sometimes be sacrificed in the City team to allow the system to flourish better, however you will not see this for Belgium, combine this with the fact he will take most set pieces and you have an asset who is head and shoulders above everyone else in the midfield department.

Lukaku and De Bruyne also never play on the first or last day of a matchday so the risk attached with captaining them diminishes in comparison to the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo. (Not applicable to FanTeam)

Recommendation – Buy them.

3. Robert Lewandowski (Official game – €11.5M, FanTeam – €9M), Poland + Kylian Mbappe (Official game – €12M, FanTeam – €12M), France + Cristiano Ronaldo (Official game – €12M, FanTeam – €10M)

Firstly, I’d like to clarify that I see the three players above as worse options than Kane and Lukaku, due to rules and structure of this game and the tournament (chips and the “group of death”) (Not applicable to FanTeam). As such, it is very difficult to suggest any of these players will be superior to each other.

Rather than lecture you about how good these three are, as it would be an insult to your intelligence, I lay out a strategy below which you could adapt to your team.

However, one quick thing I want to point out is with the inclusion of Karim Benzema, Mbappe may have to involve himself slightly more in the build up to cater for the possible absence of Olivier Giroud, rather than being on the end of a flick on to put him through, he may also miss out on penalty taking duty as that has been ever changing within the French squad. I don’t imagine it will have a massive impact but some food for thought.

Matchday 1 preference:

Cristiano Ronaldo
Robert Lewandowski
Kylian Mbappe

Matchday 2 preference:

Kylian Mbappe
Cristiano Ronaldo
Robert Lewandowski

Matchday 3 preference:

Robert Lewandowski
Cristiano Ronaldo
Kylian Mbappe

It’s a fairly simple strategy if you wish to adopt this, personally I’d just go Kane and Lukaku, and go for either a budget forward if that’s your preference or rotate the third premium in the order above but should you choose to have two of these players, here it is with reasoning:

Matchday 1 – Target the fixture against Hungary, hence Ronaldo’s number one spot. The German side will be an interesting watch, they aren’t the best defensively on paper but may surprise a few people with a performance against France as I’m sure they will be up for it, hence Mbappe’s number three spot. Lewandowski will be essential to everything Poland do and Slovakia aren’t the best nor the worst fixture.

Matchday 2 – Again target the fixture against Hungary in the form of Mbappe. It will be Lewandowski’s toughest test in the group stage against a resolute Spanish defence (however it remains to be seen how they cope without Sergio Ramos), so avoid him out of the three, the same applies to Ronaldo as it did for Mbappe.

Matchday 3 – The Swedish fixture is a good one, their defence isn’t the best. Ronaldo and Mbappe play each other in what I expect to be a low scoring affair, my preference for Cristiano is resultant of his side being more orientated to suit him rather than Mbappe who fits into the system rather than having it built around him.

Conclusion

I hope the in-depth details of Kane and Lukaku showed you why they are in my opinion the best two forward options.

Kevin De Bruyne is by far the best midfield option for me, I’m not saying the others are useless, they aren’t but there is better value Euro for Euro elsewhere in other categories of position.

If you are to adopt the strategy proposed for the other three forwards (with two of them being in your team), be aware captaincy will either go very well or very badly due to France and Portugal playing on the last day in the Matchday consistently.

As such a larger gambling element is implement which I don’t expect most to take. Please read the rules properly, it’s a slightly different game to the one we love in Fantasy Premier League and good luck!

Euro 2020 Fantasy Football Tips – Forwards

The Spine

Less goals in international football?

Euro 2020 Fantasy Football – The Premium Midfielders

Euro 2020 Fantasy Football – The Five Best Forwards:

1. Harry Kane ( Official game – €11.5M, FanTeam – €13.5M), England

2. Romelu Lukaku (Official game – €11M, FanTeam – €11.5M), Belgium (and Kevin De Bruyne (Official game – €5M, FanTeam – €12.5M))

3. Robert Lewandowski (Official game – €11.5M, FanTeam – €9M), Poland + Kylian Mbappe (Official game – €12M, FanTeam – €12M), France + Cristiano Ronaldo (Official game – €12M, FanTeam – €10M)

Conclusion

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Euro 2020 Fantasy Football Tips – “Restructuring the Team and the Manager”

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