This FPL Gameweek 10 strategy article reviews the FPL points as a metric team after Gameweek 10. We take a look at the data before moving on to the team for Gameweek 11.

If you’re interested in reading the article that explains this in detail, you can find out more in my introduction to using FPL points as a metric.

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Gameweek 10 Review – FPL Strategy

A red arrow for the team this week with just 44 points. This takes us from 18k to 32k! We were fortunate to get Conor Gallagher (£5.7m) off of the bench with a shock 13 point haul in Palace’s 2-0 win at Man City.

Other than that there wasn’t much to shout about really, in what was a dreadful week for anyone that didn’t have Reece James (£5.8m), Raul Jimenez (£7.6m) or Aaron Ramsdale (£4.7m).

44 Points in Gameweek 10 sees us drop to 32k.

The Data – FPL Gameweek 11 Strategy

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper Points Scored, Conceded and their next 5 fixtures according to Points Conceded

As we can see, Norwich have given up the most FPL Points to opposition Goalkeepers so far. Burnley, Arsenal, Watford and Spurs make up the remaining five.

Chelsea top the table for FPL Points scored at the Goalkeeper position so far, with Liverpool’s Alisson Becker (£6m) close behind.

Illan Meslier (£5m) hasn’t managed a clean sheet since we got him in, and despite Leeds performing better in the underlying numbers for attempts conceded, Meslier could be the subject of a luxury transfer.

We picked him over the likes Vicente Guaita (£4.5m) who is performing better and costs less money. Newcastle start to have some favourable fixtures but I can’t see anyone being interested in their defensive assets.

Defenders

Defender Points Scored, Conceded and their next 5 fixtures according to Points Conceded

No surprises in the Points Scored table, with Chelsea now miles ahead after some monster performances from their defenders. Since Gameweek 8, both Reece James (£5.8m) and Ben Chilwell (£6m) have scored 35 points.

However, looking at their xFPL Points, they’re both massively over-performing (James on 18.9 xFPL and Chilwell on 14 xFPL). Those of you purchasing now should temper expectations, as it’s unlikely that they will produce double digit hauls weekly.

They’re both very good assets to have, don’t get me wrong, but with rotation thrown into the mix people need to ensure their benches can cover the risk.

Cesar Azpilicueta (£6m) has been a massive letdown since the Wildcard with rotation and injury meaning he’s missed two of three games. However, Thomas Tuchel has been known to deploy his taller players against Burnley before, so “Azpi” could be in line for a start despite playing against Malmo midweek.

He’s got one more week in the team and if he doesn’t make the line up yet again, we’ll look at our options ahead of Gameweek 12.

Liverpool, Manchester City, West Ham and Wolves make up the top five teams scoring the most FPL Points.

Norwich sit bottom of the table for points conceded by some distance as they continue to be the whipping boys of the league. Watford, Spurs, Arsenal and Burnley make up the teams conceding the most FPL Points to opposition defensive units.

Newcastle are the team with the best run over the next five but as mentioned above, I don’t think they’re worth consideration right now. Only Aston Villa and Everton have conceded more big chances in the last four gameweeks.

Midfielders

Midfielder Points Scored, Conceded and their next 5 fixtures according to Points Conceded

The Midfield Table shows Liverpool nearly 100 points clear at the top for most FPL Points scored, mainly due to Mohamed Salah (£12.9m) and his red hot start.

Salah is averaging just under 12 points per game so far, which would total 451 points over the season!

There will be blanks from time to time, but it would be a brave manager to place the armband elsewhere anytime soon. A five point return against Brighton was underwhelming, based on his previous form.

Man City, Man United, Chelsea and West Ham make up the top five in terms of Points Scored.

Everton have dropped out of the top five now, albeit by one point. They have some tricky fixtures coming up now so it wouldn’t surprise me to see their midfielders sold.

Norwich have conceded the most FPL Points to opposition Midfield units so far.

Burnley Leeds, Newcastle and Watford/Aston Villa on 199 Points Conceded make up the five teams worth targeting.

Brentford now come up against two of the five teams conceding the most FPL Points to opposition midfield units.

We should see the return of Bryan Mbeumo (£5.5m) this week, after being omitted against Burnley.

Brighton also have three nice fixtures coming up, with Newcastle, Aston Villa and Leeds up next, so someone like Leandro Trossard (£6.4m) could be a lovely differential over the next few games. His underlying numbers are comparable to the likes of Said Benrahma (£6.5m) and Ismaila Sarr (£6.2m).

Crystal Palace also have a decent run coming up and with Conor Gallagher (£5.7m) surprising a lot of people last week. He could pick up where he left off against Man City.

Forwards

Forwards Points Scored, Conceded and their next 5 fixtures according to Points Conceded

Watford, Leicester, Newcastle, Crystal Palace, and Wolves make up the top five teams with Forwards scoring the most FPL Points so far.

A lot of these teams play two up top each week, which can dilute it slightly. Looking at individuals, Jamie Vardy (£10.6m) and Michail Antonio (£8.1m) have disappointed in recent weeks, but Vardy especially has decent fixtures coming up, so patience might be needed.

Antonio could well be sold with Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea in his next five games. However, he can score against anyone so it is a risk to sell him. He’s miles ahead of other Forwards both in terms of his goal threat but also his creativity.

Newcastle, Everton, Watford, Spurs and Leeds make up the five teams conceding the most FPL Points to opposition Forwards. Spurs drop into the bottom five after a double digit haul from Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.4m) and an 8-pointer from Edinson Cavani (£8.4m) last week.

After suggesting a punt on Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£9.9m) a couple of weeks ago, he now comes up against three of our green teams in his next five. He’s only owned by 5.3% of managers at the time of writing, so he could be a lovely option.

Ivan Toney’s (£6.6m) fixtures over the next five weeks bode well for him, but he hasn’t returned in his last four games. These are definitely the fixtures needed for him to turn that around, but with Mbeumo playing further forward Toney could be the creator rather than the goalscorer.

Adam Armstrong (£5.9m) was dropped in Gameweek 8 and 9, returning to the starting line up in Gameweek 10, potentially due to injury to Armando Broja (£5m). At the time of writing we don’t know if Broja is fit, so Armstrong hopefully gets another start this weekend.

Armstrong’s accuracy is letting him down, but he is getting plenty of shot volume when he does play. With a very good record in the Championship, hopefully he discovers his shooting boots.

Home and Away Points Scored and Conceded Tables

Tables showing FPL Points Scored and Conceded

We see here that the teams scoring the most FPL Points are also conceding the least! This gives us an idea of the teams doing well and potentially those worth targeting.

The Data Split into Home and Away Tables

FPL Points Conceded and Scored split into Home and Away tables

The teams performing badly at home according to total FPL Points Conceded after five home games are Man United, Norwich, Watford, Wolves and Newcastle.

The teams performing badly away from home according to total FPL Points Conceded after five away games are Norwich, Arsenal, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Newcastle and Spurs.

The teams performing well at home according to total FPL Points Scored after five home games are Chelsea, Man City, Everton, Aston Villa and Liverpool.

The teams performing well away from home after five away games according to total FPL Points Scored are Liverpool, Chelsea, Brighton, Man United and West Ham.

Home and Away Data – Points Per Game Basis

Home and Away tables sorted by Points Per Game

To give the Home and Away table a bit of fairness, we also do it on a Points Per Game (PPG) Basis.

The teams performing badly at home according to total FPL Points Conceded per game are Watford, Norwich, Wolves, Man United and Newcastle.

On the other hand, Norwich, Arsenal, Crystal Palace, Newcastle, Spurs and Burnley are performing badly away from home.

The teams performing well at home according to total FPL Points Scored in respect of PPG are Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Aston Villa and Everton, with City and Chelsea absolutely dominating in their home fixtures.

The teams performing well away from home according to total FPL Points Scored in respect of PPG are Liverpool, Chelsea, West Ham, Brighton and Man United.

FPL Gameweek 11 Team

So after that deep dive into the data, here is the lineup, as it stands, for Gameweek 10:

The Bus Team for Gameweek 11

Provided everyone is fit, I’m pretty happy here. Mason Mount (£7.6m) missed the Malmo game with illness, so he’s one to monitor, as is the situation at Southampton regarding Armstrong and Broja. As mentioned above, I think Azpilicueta starts this weekend, in order to combat the aerial threat Burnley have, so he gets one more chance in our team.

I’m benching Ruben Dias (£6.1m) away to Man United but this is purely to spread the risk. Looking at the individual matchup data, United are in the top five teams conceding the most FPL Points to Defenders at home, and Villa are conceding the fourth least. With that in mind, I may still roll with the double City Defence and bench Tino Livramento (£4.4m).

Transfers – FPL Gameweek 11 Strategy

I have two Free Transfers and £5.8m in the bank. I’m not sure what move I want to make yet, but I won’t rule out a Goalkeeper transfer to avoid burning a transfer.

Captaincy – FPL Gameweek 11 Strategy

Not overthinking this one. Salah will be our captain, with Ivan Toney being our vice captain.

Conclusion – FPL Gameweek 11 Strategy

Well there we have it. As always, there is a lot to think about ahead of the weekend. I hope you’ve found this interesting and it would be great to hear your thoughts on it!

I would also love it if you’d drop me a follow on Twitter @RichP_FPL. Cheers!

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FPL Gameweek 11 Strategy – Using FPL Points as a Metric

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