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            <p><strong>FPL Gameweek 14 preview </strong>from veteran <strong>Fantasy Premier League manager</strong> <a href="https://twitter.com/BigManBakar">BigManBakar</a>.</p>
<p>He shares his data-driven observations to help us make effective decisions for <strong>Gameweek 14</strong>.</p>
<p>You can catch all our other brilliant <strong><a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/fantasy-premier-league-ultimate-guide/">FPL Gameweek 14 tips right here</a></strong>.</p>
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<h2><strong>Q: What to do with Phil Foden? Who are the best replacements?</strong></h2>
<p>I would wait till <strong>Pep Guardiola’s</strong> press conference before deciding what to do with<strong> Phil Foden (£8.2m)</strong>.</p>
<p>I like what I have seen from <strong>Man City</strong> so far and fully expect them to go on a run soon. Foden has been first choice this season so ideally you’d want to keep him.</p>
<p>If you have no other routes to <strong>Diogo Jota (£7.7m)</strong> though, I feel as if you have to prioritise the <strong>Liverpool</strong> attacker.</p>
<h3>Diogo Jota big chance involvements in his starts this season:</h3>
<p><strong>GW1</strong> (nor): 2<br />
<strong>GW2</strong> (BUR): 1<br />
<strong>GW4</strong> (lee): 2<br />
<strong>GW5</strong> (CPL): 1<br />
<strong>GW6</strong> (bre): 2<br />
<strong>GW7</strong> (MCI): 0<br />
<strong>GW9</strong> (mun): 2<br />
<strong>GW11</strong> (whm): 0<br />
<strong>GW12</strong> (ARS): 2<br />
<strong>GW13</strong> (SOT): 3</p>
<p>Jota has been a stat monster whenever he has started this season. In fact, he has a better minutes per xGi ratio than Salah!</p>
<p>He’s a steal at £7.6 million playing for statistically the best attack in the league when it comes to shots in the box, big chances and xG.</p>
<p>Having a piece of that pie for that price makes me think that getting in Jota is a transfer of the highest priority at the moment.</p>
<p>With Champions League qualification already secured, he could turn out to be an option for the long-term.</p>
<p>There is also the possibility of <strong>Sadio</strong> <strong>Mane</strong> and <strong>Mohammed</strong> <strong>Salah</strong> leaving early around late December for the <strong>African Cup of Nations</strong>.</p>
<p>If you already own Jota, and Foden is declared to be unavailable, then <strong>Bernardo Silva (£7.3m)</strong> is a good option in isolation.</p>
<p>However, I don’t think he’s as explosive as <strong>İlkay Gündoğan (£7.2m)</strong>.</p>
<p>The German recorded the <strong>second best expected goal involvement (xGi)</strong> after Jota this Gameweek. He also took up some really threatening positions against <strong>West Ham</strong>.</p>
<p>In his previous three starts, he is top among all the Man City players for <strong>xG, big chances, shots in the box and expected goal involvement</strong>.</p>
<p>He’s playing really well at the moment too and should keep his starting position for most matches. <strong>Gündoğan</strong> would be my Foden replacement if the England international was unavailable and I had Jota already.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2><strong>Q: In this section, I cover the Chelsea defence.</strong></h2>
<p>I’m a huge advocate of the Chelsea defensive double up. In my opinion, <strong>Reece James (£6.3m) and Marcos Alonso (£5.6m)</strong> are the ones you should ideally own.</p>
<p>I know there’s a good chance they will miss the odd game here or there. However, in my opinion, their explosive potential is such that they will make up for it in the weeks when they play.</p>
<p>Chelsea’s defence was a bit shaky to start with but since <strong>Gameweek 7</strong>, they have the<strong> best expected xG conceded in the division</strong> – better than that of even Man City.</p>
<p>They<strong> conceded just the single shot in the box to Man United</strong> which came as a result of an individual error and won’t happen too often.</p>
<p>I’ve already covered James enough in my previous articles so I’ll take more of an opportunity to write about Alonso.</p>
<p>The Spaniard has<strong> three goals and two assists</strong> in 15 league starts under<strong> Thomas Tuchel</strong>, averaging an attacking return once every three games.</p>
<p>Out of defenders who have had at least four starts or more, only <strong>Alexander Arnold, Cancelo, James and Chilwell</strong> have registered a better expected goal involvement per start this campaign.</p>
<p>What I love about these attacking defenders though is that you always have the security of clean sheets to fall back on should they fail to deliver any attacking returns.</p>
<p>More clean sheets should follow and Alonso, given Chilwell’s injury, looks set to be in the points in the weeks to come.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2><strong>Q: In this section, I cover Joshua King and Emmanuel Dennis.</strong></h2>
<p>Since <strong>Gameweek 9</strong>, <strong>Joshua King (£5.6m)</strong> is top among all players in the league for expected goal involvement and xG. Yes, his numbers have been better than those of even Salah’s!</p>
<p>King has played every minute that he has been available under <strong>Claudio Ranieri</strong> so far. The Norwegian has had at least one big chance in four of the previous five games.</p>
<p>He scored from the penalty spot against <strong>Leicester</strong> so there is a good chance he might keep them for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>In fact, he recorded another big chance to score from open play as well but squandered it.</p>
<p>He’s perhaps more nailed than<strong> Emmanuel Dennis (£5.3m)</strong> in the long run as the <a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/afcons-impact-on-fpl-fpl-tips-21-22/"><strong>African Cup of Nations</strong></a> could impact Dennis’ availability.</p>
<p>Dennis’ numbers have been impressive as well, but King’s are still superior. King is likely to remain a viable budget option for the entirety of the Christmas period. As a result, he would be my pick as a budget striker at the moment.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Q: In this section, I cover Ivan Toney, Bryan Mbeumo and emphasize on the importance of a playable bench ahead of the fixture congestion.</h2>
<p><strong>Ivan Toney (£6.7m) and Bryan Mbeumo’s (£5.6m)</strong> underlying numbers were poor against <strong>Everton</strong> yet again. Toney scored from the penalty spot but he had a negligible xG from open play.</p>
<p>I still think they will offer good value though. They play for an attacking team and are cheap enough to be benched when need be.</p>
<p>With the fixtures coming thick and fast, squad depth will be very important which is why I like owning these kinds of assets at this time of the year.</p>
<p>With quick turnarounds, the significant majority of assets will get rested in the Christmas period. In my opinion, <strong>a stronger bench than owning Tino Livramento and two fillers will be required.</strong></p>
<p>Keeping Toney is easier but I’d do the same for Mbeumo as well. There are no budget midfielders in and around Mbeumo’s price range who have been standing out in terms of underlying numbers consistently.</p>
<p>In my opinion, selling Mbeumo is a luxury transfer and I feel as if there will be much higher priority transfers to make in the weeks to come.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2><strong>Q: Should Michail Antonio be sold?</strong></h2>
<h3>Antonio's GW1-6 v GW7-13 Stats per 90</h3>
<p><strong>Shots in the box</strong>: 4.2 v 1.4<br />
<strong>Big chances</strong>: 1.6 v 0.3<br />
<strong>xG</strong>: 0.96 v 0.19<br />
<strong>xGi</strong>: 1.5 v 0.4</p>
<p>It’s almost as if <strong>Michail Antonio’s numbers (£8.1m)</strong> have fallen off a cliff. He has blanked in four consecutive Gameweeks so it’s tempting to sell him. However, I wouldn’t do so.</p>
<p>Despite his drop in numbers, <strong>Antonio still remains top among forwards for xG and big chances</strong> this season.</p>
<p>There are no obvious replacements and there’s also the fact that you would want him ahead of West Ham’s fixture swing in Gameweek 16.</p>
<p>That would require an extra transfer to sell him and then buy him back at possibly a higher price so I’d keep the Jamaican.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2><strong>Q: Should Raphinha be sold?</strong></h2>
<p><strong>Raphinha’s (£6.7m)</strong> numbers have dropped this season which coincides with how <strong>Leeds</strong> have been playing.</p>
<p>It is interesting to note that the <strong>big chances per game</strong> of Leeds have dropped considerably from 2 last season to 1.3 this time round.</p>
<p>They are also shooting much more from distance, <strong>averaging 6.62 shots per match</strong> from outside the box vs 4.45 last season.</p>
<p>Having said that, Raphinha for me still remains the most reliable midfielder to own in his price range.</p>
<p>He has over-performed his xG significantly – <strong>scoring five times despite a xG of just 2.73</strong>. This makes him one of the most over-performing midfielders.</p>
<p>Having said that, he has <strong>no assists from an xA of 2.55</strong>. Therefore, he is performing on par when it comes to his expected goal involvement (xGi).</p>
<p>I would hold him for the next two weeks (CRY BRE) before possibly moving him onto <strong>Jarrod Bowen (£6.4m)</strong>. He has slipped under the radar this season but he has been scoring points consistently.</p>
<p>Since <strong>Gameweek 5</strong>, <strong>Bowen</strong> <strong>is behind only Salah, Jota and Mané</strong> among midfielders when it comes to expected goal involvement (xGi).</p>
<p><strong>West Ham are ranked fifth for xG</strong> this season, averaging 1.6 xG per game. He was rested this week but<strong> David Moyes</strong> confirmed it was only a tactical decision to counter<strong> Man City</strong>.</p>
<p>West Ham’s kind fixture swing coincides with <strong>Raphinha’s</strong> poor fixtures from<strong> Gameweek 16</strong> onwards. This might be the move to make soon.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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FPL Gameweek 14 Preview and Tips | BigManBakar

FPL Gameweek 14 Preview and Tips | BigManBakar

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