This FPL Gameweek 16/17 strategy article reviews the FPL points as a metric team after Gameweek 15. We take a look at the data before moving on to the team for Gameweek 16/17.

If you’re interested in reading the article that explains this in detail, you can find out more in my introduction to using FPL points as a metric.

The Ultimate Guide to FPL Gameweek 1: Pre-season tips

Gameweek 15 Review – FPL Strategy

Two red arrows since my last article have seen me move from 40k to 63k. It’s still a fantastic position to be in, but with Covid-19 rearing its ugly head, who knows where this season will go from here.

48 points in Gameweek 15 dropped me down to 63k.

Our latest transfer of moving Cesar Azpilicueta (£5.7m) to Sergio Reguilon (£5.3m) didn’t work out, as he got a yellow card and then injured in the 3-0 win over Norwich. Extremely unfortunate but he has tweeted to say not to sell him in FPL! So at least we know to hold him.

The issue now, however, is that Spurs are apparently suffering from a Covid outbreak, so their game with Brighton could be postponed. Fortunately we have two transfers this week!

COVID-19 disruption for Spurs in Gameweek 16 | FPL Tips 2021/22

The Data – FPL Gameweek 16/17 Strategy

Goalkeepers

Goalkeepers FPL Points Conceded, Scored and their next 5 fixtures according to Points Conceded by their opposition

As we can see, it is now Arsenal that have given up the most FPL Points to opposition Goalkeepers so far.

Wolves, Norwich, Watford and Burnley make up the remaining five.

Chelsea and Liverpool are joint top of the table for FPL Points scored in the Goalkeeper position so far. Wolves are close behind.

Man United and West Ham now have decent runs of fixtures, and with Illan Meslier (£4.9m) coming into a tough run, a luxury Goalkeeper transfer could be on the cards!

Defenders

Defenders FPL Points Conceded, Scored and their next 5 fixtures according to Points Conceded by their opposition

No surprises in the Points Scored table, with Chelsea 126 points ahead after some monster performances from their defenders.

However, in their last three weeks they’ve conceded five goals – here’s hoping they can get back to normality with fixtures against Leeds, Everton, Wolves, Aston Villa and Brighton in their next five games.

Liverpool, Manchester City, Spurs and Wolves make up the top five teams scoring the most FPL Points. Three clean sheets from their last four games see Spurs creep in here.

Norwich sit bottom of the table for points conceded, but have improved in their underlying numbers in recent weeks.

Southampton, Burnley, Wolves and Everton make up the teams conceding the most FPL Points to opposition defences.

Looking at the fixtures, Arsenal, Crystal Palace and West Ham all play three of the five teams conceding the most FPL Points to opposition defensive units in their next five games. Man City play two. If we’re looking at a defensive transfer, we’ll be looking at these teams.

Midfielders

Midfielders FPL Points Conceded, Scored and their next 5 fixtures according to Points Conceded by their opposition

The Midfield Table shows Liverpool are over 100 points clear at the top for most FPL Points scored. This is mainly due to Mohamed Salah’s (£13m) electric form.

He is averaging just over 10 points per game so far which would total around 380 points over the season!

Man City, Man United, Chelsea and West Ham complete the top five in terms of Points Scored.

Norwich have conceded the most FPL Points to opposition Midfield units so far.

Arsenal, Leeds, Newcastle and Watford make up the five teams conceding the most points.

West Ham now have some lovely fixtures over the festive period, so the likes of Jarrod Bowen (£6.5m) and Pablo Fornals (£6m) come into our thinking.

FPL Fixture Ticker

After Wolves, Man City also have good fixtures, but these guys are worth targeting regardless! The only issue is that Kevin de Bruyne (£11.8m) appears to be fit again, so predicting who starts, and also where they play in the system, is tricky now.

Arsenal’s fixtures are a mixed bag and with Emile Smith-Rowe (£6.1m) now yellow-flagged, we’ve lost another decent budget option.

Man United also have decent fixtures but, playing a new system, I think we need to wait and see with their midfielders.

With Heung-Min Son (£10.4m) now a doubt due to Spurs having to potentially postpone their fixture, we are in the market for a midfielder.

Forwards

Forwards FPL Points Conceded, Scored and their next 5 fixtures according to Points Conceded by their opposition

Watford, Leicester, Newcastle, Crystal Palace and Southampton make up the top five teams with Forwards scoring the most FPL Points so far.

A lot of these teams play two up top each week, which can sway the numbers to a certain extent.

Looking at individuals, Jamie Vardy (£10.7m) and Michail Antonio (£7.9m) have disappointed in recent weeks, but Antonio especially now has a fantastic run of fixtures.

Emmanuel Dennis (£5.7m) is second overall for top scoring Forwards, but he is drastically over performing, so whether this continues remains to be seen. He is out-performing his xG and also his xFPL, in addition to the fact he might get called up for AFCON.

Josh King (£5.7m) – who plays centrally and should be on penalties – could be a better bet. The fixtures aren’t great according to the ticker above, but both are great enablers.

Newcastle, Everton, Norwich, Watford and Leicester are the teams conceding the most FPL Points to opposition Forwards.

Burnley, Crystal Palace, Man United, and West Ham Forwards all have decent Festive Fixtures.

We have Ivan Toney (£6.7m) who is now potentially out with Covid, so we’re also in the market for a Forward.

Home and Away Points Scored and Conceded Tables

League Tables according to FPL Points Scored/Conceded per game

As evidenced above, most of the teams scoring the most FPL Points are also conceding the least. This gives us an idea of the best performing clubs doing well and those worth targeting.

I’ve also done this using Points Difference like Goal Difference:

League Table based on Points Scored Minus Points Conceded

Home and Away Data – Points Per Game Basis

The Positional Data based on Home and Away on a Points Per Game basis

The teams performing badly at home according to FPL Points Conceded per game are Watford, Norwich, Leicester, Man United and Wolves.

On the other hand, Norwich, Arsenal, Crystal Palace, Southampton, and Burnley are performing poorly away from home.

The teams performing well at home according to FPL Points Scored in respect of Points Per Game are Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs.

Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea are absolutely dominating in their home fixtures, and this indicates how much better Arsenal are at home, as they are scoring in the top five teams at home, and in the top five teams away for points conceded.

Similarly, the teams performing well away from home according to total FPL Points Scored Per Game are Liverpool, Chelsea, West Ham, Man City and Wolves.

FPL Gameweek 16/17 Team

So after that deep dive into the data, here is the current lineup for Gameweek 16/17:

Bus Team for Gameweek 16

As mentioned above, we have a few issues here. Rumours that Heung-Min Son (£10.4m) has tested positive for Covid, combined with the Spurs game in jeopardy, means issues for both Son and Reguilon. Combine that with Ivan Toney (£6.7m) testing positive for Covid, we potentially have a risk of three players out already.

I have two free transfers and £2.8m in the bank.

My early plans involve looking at Man City and West Ham midfielders, and then based on that decision, a Forward from Crystal Palace or Man United. This could be Son and Toney being sold for Bowen and Ronaldo, for example. I’d then look to roll my transfer in Gameweek 17.

Transfers – FPL Gameweek 16/17 Strategy

Potentially as above.

Captaincy – FPL Gameweek 16/17 Strategy

Mohamed Salah (£13.1m) has two home games against Aston Villa and Newcastle. He will very likely be my captain.

Conclusion – FPL Gameweek 16/17 Strategy

Well there we have it. As always, there is a lot to think about ahead of the weekend. I hope you’ve found this interesting and it would be great to hear your thoughts on it!

I would also love it if you’d drop me a follow on Twitter @RichP_FPL. Cheers!

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FPL Gameweek 16/17 Strategy – Using FPL Points as a Metric

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