This FPL Gameweek 30 strategy article reviews the FPL points as a metric team after Gameweek 29. We take a look at the data, before moving on to the team for Blank Gameweek 30.

If you’re interested in reading the article that explains this strategy in detail, you can find out more in my introduction to using FPL points as a metric.

Gameweek 29 Review – FPL Strategy

An average week for the team this week, with a score of 91 (-4) all out, taking us down to 51k with one game to go. Considering we were 25k after Gameweek 27, it’s a blow, but there’s plenty to play for!

We took out Jacob Ramsey (£4.8m) and Joao Cancelo (£6.9m) this week for Matt Doherty (£4.8m) and Dejan Kulusevski (£6.2m) to tap into Spurs’ Double Gameweek, but ultimately we’re down on the moves so far. Hopefully they can pay us back in Gameweek 30.

gw29 points as metric fpl

Note: All data taken prior to the Everton vs Newcastle game

The Data – FPL Gameweek 30 Strategy

FPL Points Conceded and Scored

Goalkeepers

As we can see, it’s Norwich that have presented the most FPL points to opposition Goalkeepers so far.

Brighton, Burnley, Watford and Leeds make up the remaining teams in green. It’s worth noting that the postponements are skewing these figures slightly, so I’ve also done this on a Points Per Game (PPG) basis:

FPL Points Per Game

As the games in hand continue to be reduced, the tables are starting to look pretty similar again.

When we look at FPL Points scored by goalkeepers, Liverpool are top on a PPG basis, with Wolves, Man City, Arsenal and Chelsea making up the top five.

Defenders

FPL Points Conceded and Scored with the next 4 gameweeks according to FPL Points Conceded

Chelsea are still top of the table for FPL Points scored by their defenders, with Liverpool now in second.

Man City, Spurs and Wolves make up the top five defences scoring the most FPL points.

Norwich sit bottom of the table for points conceded, and Leeds, Everton, Burnley and Watford make up the teams conceding the most FPL points to opposition defenders. Wolves defenders are both scoring and conceding lots of FPL Points. Now let’s look at the PPG:

The above data on a Points Per Game Basis

As with Goalkeepers, these tables are beginning to reflect the overall data with less games in hand.

West Ham play in 30 and also have decent fixtures coming up – potentially offering some differential options now? Aaron Cresswell (£5.4m) is the defender with the highest ownership at 7.8%, so there could be an opportunity there.

Midfielders

FPL Points Conceded and Scored with the next 4 gameweeks according to FPL Points Conceded

The Midfielder table shows Liverpool are well out on top at this position. Man City are in second, with West Ham, Man United and Chelsea making up the top five.

Leeds have conceded the most FPL points to opposition Midfield units so far.

Norwich, Brentford, Watford and West Ham make up the five teams conceding the most points. Let’s see how this changes on a PPG basis:

Points Per Game fpl

Here we see Burnley back in the teams conceding the most FPL Points to opposition midfielders, replacing West Ham.

Forwards

FPL Points Conceded and Scored with the next 4 gameweeks according to FPL Points Conceded

Watford, Newcastle, Crystal Palace, Norwich and Southampton make up the top five teams for Forwards with the most FPL points so far.

A lot of these teams play two up top each week, which can sway the numbers to a certain extent.

There really isn’t a lot to choose from in this position right now, making it tricky to identify targets for our team. However, with seven goals and an assist in his last six games, Harry Kane (£12.4m) has been in electric form. Given that there are no other real standout options, should we all move to get him in?

Newcastle, Everton, Norwich, Southampton and Watford are the teams conceding the most FPL points to opposition forwards. Let’s see what the PPG table looks like:

fpl Points Per Game

Watford Forwards are averaging 10.3 PPG at the moment, which has actually increased in the last couple of weeks due to the form of Cucho Hernandez (£5m). He has three goals in his last three games!

Leeds and Man United have decent fixtures coming up but with Patrick Bamford (£7.7m) only just coming back from injury, and Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.2m) blowing hot and cold, they are risks.

Home and Away Data – Points Per Game Basis

The above data split into Home and Away games on a Points Per Game basis

The teams performing worst at home according to FPL Points Conceded per game are Watford, Norwich, Burnley, Leeds and Brighton.

Away from home, Norwich, Leeds, Everton, Brentford and Burnley are performing poorly. Note that Burnley Leeds and Norwich are giving up plenty of points, regardless of whether they’re home or away.

The teams performing well at home according to FPL Points Scored in respect of Points Per Game, are Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs.

Liverpool and Man City are absolutely dominating in their home fixtures, averaging over 60 FPL Points Scored per game.

The teams performing well away from home according to total FPL Points Scored per game are Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, Man City and Wolves.

Specific Blank Gameweek 30 Match Data

Aston Villa vs Arsenal

Aston Villa vs Arsenal fpl

The key matchup for me here is Arsenal’s Midfield. They’re in the top five midfields, scoring the most FPL Points away from home, whilst Villa are in the top five teams conceding the most FPL Points to opposition Midfielders.

Bukayo Saka (£6.6m) could be an intriguing play this week. In the last six matches, Villa are conceding marginally more chances on their left flank (17) than their right flank (15). With Lucas Digne (£5.1m) out injured, Saka will come up against a deputy, who he could give a torrid time.

Villa don’t concede many FPL Points to opposition Goalkeepers or Defenders at home, which indicates an Arsenal clean sheet isn’t likely.

Phillipe Coutinho (£7.5m) and Matthew Cash (£5.2m) aside, I can’t see any Villa players worth targeting here.

Leicester vs Brentford

Leicester vs Brentford fpl

Brentford are one of the poorest teams on the road, making the the top five teams for conceding most FPL Points to opposition Defenders, Midfielders and Forwards. They face a Leicester side who are in the top five teams scoring the most FPL Points per game at the Forward position.

Patson Daka (£7.1m) and Kelechi Iheanacho (£6.9m) are The Foxes Forward men right now, with Daka looking more likely to play. With them still being in the Europa Conference League, ensure you keep an eye on Thursday’s game if you’re interested in a Leicester asset.

Harvey Barnes (£6.5m) and James Maddison (£6.7m) could also be interesting options, but we do have plenty of midfield options right now.

Spurs vs West Ham

Spurs vs West Ham fpl

Looking into this game, the data tends to indicate that Heung-Min Son (£10.9m) could be in line for a haul. Since Gameweek 24, West Ham are 7th for most chances conceded down their right flank (28 – only 15 conceded down their left flank, which is 14th) and are middle of the table for chances conceded centrally.

The Hammers are also just outside of the top five teams conceding the most FPL Points to opposition Midfielders per game, so whilst Harry Kane (£12.4m) is the name on everyone’s lips, could Son fly under the radar for captaincy this week? Both of the Spurs assets sit top of the Hub Points Prediction Tool for this gameweek.

Hugo Lloris (£5.4m) could be good for a clean sheet this week, with Spurs in the top five and West Ham in the bottom five for Points Scored by/Conceded to goalkeepers.

Finally, with Bowen missing and West Ham in Europa League action Thursday night, we could see a hangover from this during the game.

Wolves vs Leeds

Wolves vs Leeds fpl

Wolves defenders have a great matchup this week. They are a top five defensive unit in terms of FPL Points Scored at home per game, and face a Leeds team in the top five teams for conceding points to opposition defenders. They should do well this week.

Any hopes that Raul Jimenez (£7.6m) owners might have of returns could be wishful thinking – despite Leeds being so poor this season, they’re still good at shutting out opposition Forwards, conceding an average of only 4.8 FPL Points per game at this position. Only Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City are conceding less!

Whilst this is a good matchup for Leeds’ defensive assets, I can’t see them keeping a clean sheet here, with only three all season. I’d like to hope Raphinha (£6.5m) can actually produce some FPL Points this week, after dodging points last week. He got one assist and 5 FPL Points despite creating two big chances, having one himself and hitting the woodwork, for an xFPL of 8.3 points.

FPL Gameweek 30 Team

So after that deep dive into the data, here is the current lineup for Gameweek 30:

fpl Blank Gameweek 30 Bus Team

As you can see, we’ll likely need to remove Lucas Digne here. The team would likely require big surgery/hits to get to Harry Kane as well, and with the numbers looking good for Son, we might just have to go without and pray.

Transfers – FPL Blank Gameweek 30 Strategy

To be decided, but Lucas Digne (£5.1m) will be moved on regardless.

Captaincy – FPL Blank Gameweek 30 Strategy

Heung-Min Son (£10.9m) will be our captain this week.

Conclusion – FPL Blank Gameweek 30 Strategy

Well there we have it. As always, there is a lot to think about ahead of the weekend. I hope you’ve found this interesting, and it would be great to hear your thoughts on it!

If you’re on Twitter and you’d want to drop me a follow,
I’m @RichP_FPL. Cheers!

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Gameweek 29 Review – FPL Strategy

** Note: All data taken prior to the Everton vs Newcastle game **

The Data – FPL Gameweek 30 Strategy

Goalkeepers

Defenders

Midfielders

Forwards

Home and Away Data – Points Per Game Basis

Specific Blank Gameweek 30 Match Data

Aston Villa vs Arsenal

Leicester vs Brentford

Spurs vs West Ham

Wolves vs Leeds

FPL Gameweek 30 Team

Transfers – FPL Blank Gameweek 30 Strategy

Captaincy – FPL Blank Gameweek 30 Strategy

Conclusion – FPL Blank Gameweek 30 Strategy

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We have all the other Premier League fantasy football games covered too…

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Follow the Hub

Note: All data taken prior to the Everton vs Newcastle game

FPL Gameweek 30 Strategy – Using FPL Points as a Metric

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