<p><em>In this game theory article Hub contributor <a href="https://twitter.com/Hibbo_FPL">Hibbert</a> explain the principles of FPL ownership, how to calculate the top 10,000 average, and the concept of effective ownership. I aim to debunk common myths and provide a fundamental understanding that will equip novice managers with the tools required to improve their rank.</em></p>
<h3></h3>
<h3>Introduction</h3>
<p>Have you ever wondered why you scored above the FPL average but dropped in rank? The FPL website displays the percentage number of teams a player has been selected by but this metric is too broad and vague. As the season progresses elite FPL managers with the highest scores enter the upper echelons of the game. They often possess the best possible combination of players within the limitations of the budget. Therefore, a true barometer of success each Gameweek is the top 10,000 average. Having a strong grasp of player composition and the mathematics of ownership is an important tool to help you make informed transfers decisions.</p>
<h3></h3>
<h3>FPL Ownership &amp; Calculating Top 10,000 Average</h3>
<p>As FPL managers, without considering captaincy, we either have a 0% or 100% stake in a player. We can each buy the same players and those higher owned make a greater contribution to the average. Those that we do not own can represent a threat to our rank. For example if Kevin De Bruyne scored 10 points with 60% ownership then he would contribute 6 points to the average at that level (Ownership % x Pts scored). Each Gameweek the top 10,000 average is calculated by adding together the individual contribution to the average of every player owned &amp; started at that level. This calculation also includes captaincy, autosubs, and any chips in play (Triple Captain, Bench Boost, Free Hit).</p>
<p>Player ownership composition varies at different tiers within the game. The most elite FPL managers have a good eye for talent and a player will quickly become “essential”. To demonstrate this let’s look and compare current top 10,000 ownership against the overall game for a few players in Gameweek 22.</p>
<table width="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="112">Player</td>
<td width="121">Top10k Ownership</td>
<td width="120">Overall Ownership</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="112">B. Fernandes</td>
<td width="121">96.59%</td>
<td width="120">57.20%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="112">Mo Salah</td>
<td width="121">92.12%</td>
<td width="120">45.90%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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<p>As you can see the ownership of these premium players is denser at the elite level. Fernandes &amp; Salah are amongst the very best FPL options that fire more often than not. These players will contribute more points towards the top 10,000 average than to the overall FPL average.</p>
<table width="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="112">Player</td>
<td width="76">GW22 Points</td>
<td width="95">Top10k Ownership</td>
<td width="121">Cont. to Top10K Average (Pts)</td>
<td width="111">Overall Ownership</td>
<td width="120">Cont. to Overall Average (Pts)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="112">B. Fernandes</td>
<td width="76">17</td>
<td width="95">96.59%</td>
<td width="121">16.42</td>
<td width="111">64.21%</td>
<td width="120">10.92</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="112">Mo Salah</td>
<td width="76">2</td>
<td width="95">92.12%</td>
<td width="121">1.84</td>
<td width="111">51.71%</td>
<td width="120">1.03</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2></h2>
<p>An in-depth knowledge of player ownership can become a powerful tool when combined with FPL analytical skills, such as: reading fixtures runs, assessing a player with your eye, being aware of player injuries and analysing downturn in either individual player performance or that of their team. To illustrate I will look at Calvert-Lewin who failed to score in seven successive league games. This analysis shows that elite teams were slow to bin the Everton marksman. Such a scenario presented an opportunity for FPL managers alert to the absence of Everton’s key creators &amp; downturn in output to be pro-active in moving Calvert-Lewin on.</p>
<table width="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="105">Player</td>
<td width="131">Top 10k Ownership GW12</td>
<td width="152">Top 10k Ownership GW16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="105">Calvert-Lewin</td>
<td width="131">72.20%</td>
<td width="152">62.81%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2></h2>
<p>Conversely, FPL managers can reap huge rewards from calculated risks. To illustrate I will look at Michail Antonio who returned to starting action for the Hammers following injury in a plum double Gameweek 19. As demonstrated below elite managers felt that differential Antonio was a risk worth taking and were rewarded with a point haul.</p>
<table width="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="105">Player</td>
<td width="178">Top 10k Ownership GW18</td>
<td width="180">Top 10k Ownership GW19</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="105">Antonio</td>
<td width="178">0.64%</td>
<td width="180">39.58%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2></h2>
<p>Analysing the composition of the top 10,000 can provide insight into players which might be defensive differentials. For example, while Man City began an extraordinary run of fixtures from Gameweek 10 no defensive player from that team had ownership higher than 10%. Furthermore, knowing the combined ownership of a team’s defence will indicate how a clean sheet will effect rank. At present only a Man City defensive double up would boost rank in the event of a rear-guard shutout.</p>
<table width="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="105">Player</td>
<td width="187">Top 10k Ownership GW22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="105">Cancelo</td>
<td width="187">57.98%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="105">Stones</td>
<td width="187">59.04%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="105">Dias</td>
<td width="187">43.43%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="105">Total</td>
<td width="187">160.45%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3></h3>
<h3>Effective Ownership</h3>
<p>Effective ownership is a calculation which adds together the percentage of managers who started a player, the percentage of managers who have captained a player, and the percentage of managers who triple captained a player. The total sum of these percentages impact the individual player contribution to the average in the same way.</p>
<p>This concept means when captaincy is considered a player’s ownership can exceed 100%. To illustrate in Gameweek 22 Fernandes was owned by 96.59% &amp; captaincy (including triple captain) increased ownership by an additional 7.18% meaning an effective ownership of 103.77%. Those that own but did not captain Bruno scored 17 points but actually lost 0.64 effective points against the average.</p>
<table width="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="112">Player</td>
<td width="76">GW22 Points</td>
<td width="108">Top10k Ownership</td>
<td width="108">Top10k Effective Ownership</td>
<td width="121">Cont. to Top10K Average (Pts)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="112">B. Fernandes</td>
<td width="76">17</td>
<td width="108">96.59%</td>
<td width="108">103.77%</td>
<td width="121">17.64</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2></h2>
<p>When player ownership reaches saturation any gain from a haul is minimal. Owning such a player becomes a shield rather than a sword play. However, an incremental gain is still progress and ownership becomes insurance that prevents your rank being destroyed by their contributions to the elite level average.</p>
<p>Whilst some may question the wisdom of a player they own costing them effective points an opportunity for potential gains lay in captaincy. Bruno was a viable captaincy option at home to Southampton. Those that trusted him with armband scored 34 points and with a top 10k average contribution of 17.64 points gained 16.36 effective points on the average.</p>
<p>Some Gameweeks captaincy is stacked towards one player giving them huge effective ownership. Betting against the house and backing against that player is a high risk or reward play that isn’t without merit. In Gameweek 22 Salah had 173% effective ownership therefore only a possible 27% gain on a captaincy haul. A Salah blank with your differential captain hauling can lead to a hugely favourable rank swing. It is noteworthy that in four weeks since Gameweek 15 the player with the highest effective ownership in excess of 150% has blanked.</p>
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<h3>Conclusion:</h3>
<p>In conclusion, understanding ownership at the elite level can be a powerful tool in the armoury of FPL managers. It is vitally important to honestly evaluate your squad and treat each transfer with the due diligence it deserves. We should determine whether our players are worth their price and hold or sell accordingly. Furthermore, we should analyse the market  for players that represent huge value for their price. Being contrary and selling a highly owned player performing on a weekly basis in the quest to be different would be unwise. However, ownership should be treated as an opportunity to be exploited for benefit rather than something to be feared. Do not succumb to the fear of missing out when it comes to captaincy and become part of the heard if you feel a player can be opposed.  While the wisdom of the crowd must be respected we should carefully pick our spots to attack when an opportunity presents itself. Be more sword and less shield.</p>
<p>For those that have read, thank you. Keep an eye for more articles in the near future and good luck for the coming Gameweeks. Drop me a follow on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Hibbo_FPL">@Hibbo_FPL</a>.</p>
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