Ivan Fisher (<a href="https://twitter.com/Reuser5">@Reuser5</a>) probably enjoys thinking about Fantasy Premier League (FPL) even more than he enjoys playing it. He has three Top 10k finishes and one Top 25k finish in the last six seasons.
Abstract: In this article, I outline a new strategy I intend to apply to my FPL transfers during the 2020/21 season. Designed to maximise team explosiveness and hedge against variance caused by the captaincy decision, it involves a specific team structure and some basic rules. Somewhat experimental in nature, it is nonetheless built upon some solid FPL concepts and principles.
<h2>Introduction</h2>
Every season is different but over the years the way I have approached the game has generally remained constant.
True, my approach may have differed slightly in terms of number of hits taken, chip strategies, player rotation etc, but at its core, my game has revolved around solid mid-term planning, identifying value, determining the right moment to buy/sell players and attempting to nail as many captaincy choices as possible (along with a sprinkle of risk-taking and a few madcap alternative strategies). And for good reason; these are the mainstay of many a good FPL player.
Over the years however, this approach, for whatever reason, has led to diminishing returns for me, both in terms of success (I last had 10k finishes in the 14/15, 15/16, and 16/17 seasons) and to a lesser degree, my enjoyment of the game. Like many, my prevailing feeling in recent seasons has been that I have generally been doing all of the right things, but have more often than not been on the wrong side of variance, or in layperson terms, Lady Luck has just not shone on me enough. The reverse side of that statement of course, is that my best seasons may have been driven by the right side of variance.
The FPL skill vs luck debate is an FPL Community staple especially during the off-season. Whilst we all hold different opinions regarding the importance of variance to our final overall rank, most of us can agree that it is a significant factor. At its core, we are making educated guesses at which lottery tickets to buy each week. And arguably, the biggest single source of variance throughout an FPL season is the captaincy decision.
<h2>Captaincy – The Maker or Breaker</h2>
We are all familiar with the scenario; having spent a week losing sleep over whether Allan Saint-Maximin’s underlying <a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/opta/" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c="1" title="FPL Stats by OPTA - Player and Team Stats">stats</a>, recent performances and hairband make him a better pick than Stuart Armstrong, a blank from your captain leads to a red arrow, essentially making most other decisions immaterial.
The armband decision has the capacity to make or break a Gameweek and collectively over 38 Gameweeks it can do the same to our season. That is not to say there isn’t skill in choosing a captain, there undoubtedly is, but the double points awarded to our choices means that the impact of variance is magnified. In short, the captaincy decision is the single biggest factor that determines the colour of our arrows each week.
It comes as little surprise to me that my three most successful seasons as an FPL player have come during an era where captaincy was more straightforward. Across those seasons, Sergio Aguero, Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy/Riyad Mahrez provided reassuringly consistent and potentially explosive scores, with little reason for most FPL managers to deviate from that template. Success in those seasons was often rewarded to the careful planners, the strategists and the value identifiers; in short, I was well-suited to that world.
However, recent seasons have seen an increase in the number of captaincy options available to us, alongside a notable increase in rotation risk as well. This expanse of explosiveness and rotation-risk has arguably changed the captaincy landscape entirely, on one hand providing greater choice and greater opportunity, but also introducing greater risk and more potential pain.
This has increasingly led to a “flight to safety” for the majority of FPL managers, where consistently high-performing assets who are perceived to be largely rotation-proof become the default options, Mohamed Salah, Kevin De Bruyne (and arguably Bruno Fernandes). That in itself, has become further reinforced as their Effective Ownership (EO) rises, and the risk of betting against them increases.
<h2>Do I need to evolve?</h2>
This brave new world of alternative captaincy options is fraught with both opportunity and risk, and for those who are especially skilled at identifying the right captain at the right time, the potential upside is huge. In my eyes, there is no better exponent of this approach than Pranil Sheth (@lateriser12) whose “Upside-Chasing” strategy has proven extremely successful and has captured the imaginations of many of us over the past season. His high-stakes strategy of jumping between explosive, high-ceiling, and often differential captains is a testament to not only his appetite for risk but also his elite level of judgement when it comes to choosing captains. It is an approach that is refreshingly alien to my style of play and I suspect that in the hands of someone less-skilled at identifying captains (i.e. me), the approach might prove disastrous.
To compound matters, this season we look to have an unprecedented number of explosive captaincy options available to us. On their day, with good fixtures, the likes of Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane, Trent Alexander Arnold, Kevin De Bruyne, Raheem Sterling, Sergio Aguero, Gabriel Jesus, Bruno Fernandes, Anthony Martial, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Timo Werner are all capable of huge returns (to name just a few). Upside-chasing just got more fun and potentially profitable, for those skilled  enough to take the risk.
<div id="attachment_24094" style="width: 1582px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-24094" class="wp-image-24094 size-full" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Ticker.png" alt="" width="1572" height="351" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Ticker.png 1572w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Ticker-300x67.png 300w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Ticker-1024x229.png 1024w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Ticker-768x171.png 768w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Ticker-1536x343.png 1536w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Ticker-610x136.png 610w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Ticker-1080x241.png 1080w" sizes="(max-width: 1572px) 100vw, 1572px" />Weekly shifts in fixture strength provide opportunities for explosive returns.</div>
Nonetheless, the realisation during pre-season that identifying the right captains at the right time was probably far more important than determining whether Stuart Dallas or Luke Ayling is the Leeds fullback of choice, provided me with some much-needed clarity and a renewed sense of purpose.
But how could a strategic-thinking, medium-term planner such as me flourish in such an environment?
How could I take the lessons learned from Lateriser’s upside-chasing strategy, and make it work for me?
<h2>A Revised Approach – The Dynamic Trio (or “Upside Hedging”)</h2>
My approach to FPL transfers for this season is based on some core concepts:
<ul>
<li>Captaincy options are explosive, high-ceiling players with a favourable fixture</li>
<li>You can only have one captain each week, but you can own/cover several options</li>
<li>The best use of a free transfer (FT) is to bring in a captaincy candidate</li>
<li>FTs spent on non-captaincy candidates are less impactful, unless replacing an injured or suspended player</li>
<li>Over an entire season, defenders provide highest value (points per million (ppm))</li>
<li>Over an entire season, premium options only tend to provide good value (ppm) if captained 30-50% of the time – but they can provide outstanding value over the easier fixtures, even without the armband</li>
</ul>
Taking this to a logical conclusion, I intend to strongly focus my FTs on owning as many of the best captaincy options each week.
Naturally, the best captaincy options will differ week by week, and therefore an approach needs to be taken to ensure that the structure of the team is dynamic enough to accommodate regular shifts and that FTs are strongly prioritised with this purpose in mind.
Importantly, that dynamism will primarily come from just three positions within the squad, the other 12 positions are for all intents and purposes, “season-keepers” or more accurately “low priority transfers out”. The priority of a FT will always be to maximise the number of captaincy options using this “Dynamic Trio” of players.
The focus is as much as owning/covering a range of captaincy options as much as it is choosing the “correct” option  although clearly choosing the highest scoring option remains an important consideration.
Where a FT is used to swap out one of the peripheral 12 players, it will generally be done in situations where an FT is available to burn, or in the case of injury or suspension  in which case a hit might be warranted. It should not be used as an alternative to bringing in a captaincy candidate.
To illustrate this, the image below illustrates how my current pre-season draft might look in GW3:
<div id="attachment_24093" style="width: 806px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-24093" class="wp-image-24093 size-full" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Draft-with-roles.png" alt="" width="796" height="773" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Draft-with-roles.png 796w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Draft-with-roles-300x291.png 300w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Draft-with-roles-768x746.png 768w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Draft-with-roles-610x592.png 610w" sizes="(max-width: 796px) 100vw, 796px" />Example of team structure &#8211; roles indicated by colour; White &#8211; Dynamic Trio Orange &#8211; FPL Royalty Blue &#8211; Solid value Grey &#8211; Bench Fodder</div>
Each player fits into one of four distinct roles, the first three of which are treated as long-term prospects:
<ol>
<li>Captaincy Royalty – Highly-owned, fixture proof, season-keepers</li>
<li>Solid value and consistent performers – ideally, optimised for rotation</li>
<li>Bench fodder &#8211; budget enablers</li>
<li>The Dynamic Trio – £26.5m of flexible captain potential</li>
</ol>
With careful selection of 12 longer-term options including Salah, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Kevin De Bruyne (or equivalent), the “Dynamic Trio” of remaining positions represents a flexible pool of captaincy potential, constantly being switched with FTs to focus on premium options with better fixtures.
Those three positions could be occupied by 1, 2 or 3 additional captaincy options at any one time. They provide a flexible, dynamic pool of explosive potential throughout the season, maximised on a regular basis to fit the easiest, most profitable fixtures.
The aim is to use FTs to maximise the team’s explosiveness each week thereby reducing the effect of variance from the captaincy decision. It targets &#8220;upside&#8221; &#8211; but in a way that hedges against captaincy failure.
<h2>Conclusion</h2>
I am always at my most comfortable when I have a strategy to follow; something that is grounded in logic and game theory but is rooted in my playing style and personal FPL philosophy.
Following such a specific approach to transfers is uncharted territory for me, but I am excited to see how successful it is. If nothing else, it is relatively simple to apply, should simplify decision-making and hopefully inject some fun and freshness into my game and should hopefully stimulate conversation and debate.
I would like to think that it could turn out to be significantly more than that however, maximising the explosiveness within my team, making the most of player value and making the captaincy decision more an opportunity than a risk and I am excited to find out whether this is ultimately proven correct.
<h3>Pros</h3>
<ul>
<li>Decision-making is dramatically reduced. Rather than agonise over emergent bandwagons, relative ownership and fine margins, decision-making is largely reduced to identifying high-impact players playing good fixtures. Focuses on the shorter term.</li>
<li>Decision-making a made more fun. Energy is spent on potentially exciting, explosive moves rather than identifying minor, incremental gains. Reduces &#8220;decision-fatigue&#8221;.</li>
<li>FTs are used in a high-impact manner. Focus is on explosiveness.</li>
<li>Variance associated with captaincy is somewhat mitigated. You may not choose the highest scorer each week, but you own many of the likely candidates.</li>
<li>Flexible enough to accommodate aggressive (captain lower owned option) or defensive (captain highest owned option) approaches</li>
<li>Maximises the value of premium players by focusing on their easier fixtures only.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Cons</h3>
<ul>
<li>Reliant on identifying 12 solid long-term option in pre-season.</li>
<li>Agnostic to fixtures for all but three players.</li>
<li>Might negatively impact team value.</li>
<li>Potential to miss out on emergent bandwagons and incremental gains</li>
<li>Will require self-restraint and patience.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Summary</h3>
<ul>
<li>Squad consists of 12 long-term options (approx. £72m-75m) and three positions that are treated as short-term and dynamic (approx. £25m-28m)</li>
<li>Transfers strongly prioritised towards the three dynamic positions</li>
<li>Transfers primarily focused on owning the maximum number of explosive captaincy options over the short-term</li>
<li>Transfers to the 12 other positions are treated as much lower priority</li>
<li>Aim is to optimise coverage of captaincy options</li>
<li>Aim is to maximise impact of transfers, maximise explosiveness and minimise variance associated with captaincy</li>
<li>Targets &#8220;upside&#8221; – but in a way that hedges against the wrong captaincy choice</li>
</ul>
<h3>More FPL Content</h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/fpl-pre-season-guide/">Pre-season Guide</a></li>
<li><a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/fpl-player-price-points/">How to build an FPL team around price points</a></li>
<li><a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/seven-tips-for-a-successful-fpl-season/">Seven Tips for a Successful FPL Season</a></li>
<li><a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/?post_type=post&amp;p=23493">How to get a top 10k finish </a></li>
<li><a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/best-4-5-defenders-fpl/">Best 4.5m Defenders</a></li>
<li><a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/timo-werner-does-the-german-forward-offer-value-in-fpl/">Timo Werner &#8211; Does the German forward offer value in FPL?</a></li>
<li><a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/10-golden-rules-for-building-fpl-team-value/">10 Golden Rules to Building FPL Team Value</a></li>
<li><a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/player-comparison-series-salah-vs-mane/">Player Comparison &#8211; Salah vs Mane</a></li>
<li><a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/the-best-4-5m-midfielders-in-fpl-2020-21/">Best 4.5m Midfielders</a></li>
<li><a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/the-universal-guide-to-fpl/">The Universal Guide to FPL</a></li>
<li><a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/key-principles-of-fpl-success-complete-guide-by-fplmatthew/">Key Principles of FPL Success</a></li>
<li><a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/boring-milner-fpl-picks/">Boring Milner&#8217;s FPL Picks</a></li>
<li><a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/the-community-shield-10-fpl-takeaways/">Community Shield Takeaways</a></li>
<li><a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/gameweek-1-fpl-draft-by-fpl-matthew/">FPL Matthew&#8217;s Gameweek 1 Draft</a></li>
</ul>
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“The Dynamic Trio” – a revised approach to FPL transfers

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