This FPL strategy article will look at Rich P&#8217;s team for Gameweek 1 of the new season, as he looks to build on finishes of 15k and 42k in his last two seasons with his data-based approach.
The Using FPL Points as a Metric series uses data including FPL points scored by position and fixture tickers, to act as a starting point for identifying transfer targets.
You can find out more about this series in this <a href="https://www.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/fpl-tips-using-fpl-points-as-a-metric-introduction">introductory piece</a>. And see our other experts&#8217; team reveals <a href="https://www.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/fantasy-premier-league-team-reveals">here</a>.

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&nbsp;
<h2>Season review</h2>
Points: 2562
Overall rank: 42k
Another good season with this experimental team.
Two top 50k finishes in two justifies to me that there is something to be said for &#8220;Using FPL Points as a Metric&#8221; (still need to find a better name for this) and so heading into my third season, I hope to have another good year.
&nbsp;
<h2>Using FPL Points as a Metric: The data</h2>
<h3>Data Review from 22/23</h3>
Last year, I wrote an article detailing how FPL Points were spread across the positions available to us, with the aim being to provide some insight into how we should set our formations. This article is <a href="https://www.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/how-much-fpl-budget-should-we-allocate-to-each-position-using-fpl-points-as-a-metric-2022-23-part-1">here</a> if you fancy a read.
I&#8217;ve been collecting this data for 3 years now, and each season, there are roughly 31000 FPL Points scored by the players in the game.
In 2020/21, the breakdown of these points was as follows:
<ul>
<li>Goalkeepers: 9.2%</li>
<li>Defenders: 33.1%</li>
<li>Midfielders: 43.2%</li>
<li>Forwards: 14.5%</li>
</ul>
And in 2021/22:
<ul>
<li>Goalkeepers: 8.68%</li>
<li>Defenders: 33.69%</li>
<li>Midfielders: 44.05%</li>
<li>Forwards: 13.59%</li>
</ul>
In 2022/23:
<ul>
<li>Goalkeepers: 8.77%</li>
<li>Defenders: 31.35%</li>
<li>Midfielders: 45.94%</li>
<li>Forwards: 13.94%</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
Defenders were slightly down, with Midfielders and Forwards on the up. Naturally, the caveats that apply here are that the number of Defenders and Midfielders in the game are higher than that of Goalkeepers and Forwards.
Also, the amount of players that contribute meaningful points reduces that pool even further.
This year I looked at players that scored 100 points or more (up from 75 points in last year&#8217;s research) and found the following:
104 players from the 668 player pool scored 100 points or more scoring a total of 14182 points (44.75% of all points scored last season). Broken down into the positions:
<ul>
<li>12 Goalkeepers (just over 20% of the total Goalkeeper pool)</li>
<li>22 Defenders (just under 10%)</li>
<li>55 Midfielders (just under 19%)</li>
<li>15 Forwards (just under 19%)</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
It&#8217;s no real surprise that we don&#8217;t have as many Defenders hitting the 100 point Holy Grail.
When looking for value, as always it&#8217;s the Defender pool that offers us the most options for players scoring 100 or more points at a low price. 16 of those 22 Defenders started the season at £4.5m, in part due to FPL&#8217;s generous pricing of Arsenal, Brighton and Newcastle Defenders.
Similar can be said in Midfield, with 49 of those 55 Midfielders starting the season at £8m or less, with 27 of them starting the season at £5.5m or less!
Upfront, Haaland and Kane combined for just over 12% of the total FPL Points scored by Forwards. Haaland being £14m this season could make things a bit trickier though.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-56180" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-12.58.04.jpg" alt="" width="792" height="646" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-12.58.04.jpg 792w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-12.58.04-300x245.jpg 300w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-12.58.04-768x626.jpg 768w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-12.58.04-610x498.jpg 610w" sizes="(max-width: 792px) 100vw, 792px" />
&nbsp;
<h3>Budget and Formation</h3>
As mentioned above, Haaland being £14m and a lock in leaves £86m for the other 14 players.
We&#8217;re going to need to squeeze the value out of the remaining spots, so a cheaper backline is likely, with the data above suggesting that this position is once more the one that gives us the best chance of higher scoring players at lower prices.
This is the only spot where you can sometimes get players starting for their teams at an FPL Price point of £4m.
So a starting 3 at the back is most likely, with 4/5 in midfield, and then a 2/3 up front. I&#8217;ll take a look at the fixture tickers below and get a first draft on the go
&nbsp;
<h3>Goalkeepers</h3>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-56171" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-11-at-12.19.19.jpg" alt="" width="382" height="334" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-11-at-12.19.19.jpg 382w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-11-at-12.19.19-300x262.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 382px) 100vw, 382px" />
As always, teams in green are the teams conceding the most FPL Points to this position. I&#8217;ve also factored in the newly-promoted teams in this as well, just before the season starts (so there could initially be more green teams at certain positions).
Something to be aware of straight away is that Luton and Burnley blank in Gameweek 2.
I&#8217;m considering starting with the Brighton goalkeeper, whoever it looks to be come Gameweek 1.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-56197" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-16.02.09.jpg" alt="" width="792" height="646" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-16.02.09.jpg 792w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-16.02.09-300x245.jpg 300w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-16.02.09-768x626.jpg 768w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-16.02.09-610x498.jpg 610w" sizes="(max-width: 792px) 100vw, 792px" />
&nbsp;
<h3>Defenders</h3>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-56173" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-11-at-12.19.38.jpg" alt="" width="384" height="337" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-11-at-12.19.38.jpg 384w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-11-at-12.19.38-300x263.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 384px) 100vw, 384px" />
Teams I like the look of here are Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea (post Gameweek 1), Manchester City, and Spurs (Post Gameweek 2).
A big consideration will be around Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8m) and where he plays in the Liverpool line-up. If he is in Midfield again and playing in an advanced position, he will be straight in my team.
Ben Chilwell (£5.5m) has been quoted as saying in a TV interview that Mauricio Pochettino ‘wants me to get forward as much as possible’ which is something every FPL manager wants to hear. Let&#8217;s just hope he can stay fit!
John Stones (£5.5m) was playing as part of the Midfield for City last year, so he is also an intriguing option.
Pervis Estupinan (£5m) served FPL managers well last season and has a good run of fixtures to start the season. I still think he represents good value.
Arsenal have decent opening fixtures and Gabriel (£5m) seems underpriced, especially given his aerial threat from set pieces.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-56196" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-16.02.42.jpg" alt="" width="796" height="648" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-16.02.42.jpg 796w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-16.02.42-300x244.jpg 300w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-16.02.42-768x625.jpg 768w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-16.02.42-610x497.jpg 610w" sizes="(max-width: 796px) 100vw, 796px" />
&nbsp;
<h3>Midfielders</h3>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-56174" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-11-at-12.19.54.jpg" alt="" width="381" height="337" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-11-at-12.19.54.jpg 381w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-11-at-12.19.54-300x265.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 381px) 100vw, 381px" />
A big question I have is if Phil Foden (£7.5m) is filling the &#8220;Gundogan&#8221; role for City this season. If he is, then I think I will want to start the season with him.
Bukayo Saka (£8.5m) will start the season in the team, and I&#8217;m pretty sure at least one of Marcus Rashford (£9m) or Bruno Fernandes (£8.5m) will start in my team as well.
Differentials I&#8217;m considering are the likes of Heung-Min Son (£9m) and Richarlison (£7m) &#8211; the latter only if we see Kane leave for pastures new.
Luis Diaz (£7.5m) could be a bargain this year, as I see him being a regular starter on Liverpool&#8217;s left hand side.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-56195" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-16.03.17.jpg" alt="" width="794" height="648" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-16.03.17.jpg 794w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-16.03.17-300x245.jpg 300w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-16.03.17-768x627.jpg 768w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-16.03.17-610x498.jpg 610w" sizes="(max-width: 794px) 100vw, 794px" />
&nbsp;
<h3>Forwards</h3>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-56175" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-11-at-12.20.03.jpg" alt="" width="370" height="338" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-11-at-12.20.03.jpg 370w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-11-at-12.20.03-300x274.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 370px) 100vw, 370px" />
Erling Haaland (£14m) is locked and nothing will change that (injury aside).
Gabriel Jesus (£8m) is someone worth considering for at least Gameweeks 1-3, although Darwin Nunez is also tempting at £7.5m.
Ollie Watkins (£8m) is also in my thoughts, as Villa have some decent fixtures Gameweeks 2 and 3.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-56194" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-16.05.24.jpg" alt="" width="792" height="646" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-16.05.24.jpg 792w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-16.05.24-300x245.jpg 300w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-16.05.24-768x626.jpg 768w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-16.05.24-610x498.jpg 610w" sizes="(max-width: 792px) 100vw, 792px" />
&nbsp;
<h2>Rich Ps&#8217;s Using FPL Points as a Metric team Gameweek 1 Squad</h2>
My first draft looks like this:
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-large wp-image-56189" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-14.30.55-879x1024.jpg" alt="" width="879" height="1024" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-14.30.55-879x1024.jpg 879w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-14.30.55-257x300.jpg 257w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-14.30.55-768x895.jpg 768w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-14.30.55-610x711.jpg 610w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-14.30.55-1080x1258.jpg 1080w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-14.30.55.jpg 1138w" sizes="(max-width: 879px) 100vw, 879px" />
Some things I want to be sure of for this to stay the same:
<ul>
<li>Are Darwin/Luis Diaz seemingly the starting Left Winger and Striker?</li>
<li>Is Steele likely to be the starting &#8216;keeper for Brighton?</li>
<li>Are my bench players likely to get minutes? (All of the outfield ones seem to be playing, with Anderson in particular having a great season)</li>
</ul>
Overall, I&#8217;m pretty happy with it. No doubt I will tinker right up until deadline, but I think its a decent enough start!
&nbsp;
<h3>Captaincy</h3>
When looking at the Hub&#8217;s <a href="https://www.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/predictions">Points Prediction tool,</a> we see Haaland top of the charts:
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-large wp-image-56190" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-14.34.47-977x1024.jpg" alt="" width="977" height="1024" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-14.34.47-977x1024.jpg 977w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-14.34.47-286x300.jpg 286w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-14.34.47-768x805.jpg 768w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-14.34.47-610x639.jpg 610w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-14.34.47-1080x1132.jpg 1080w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-14.34.47.jpg 1248w" sizes="(max-width: 977px) 100vw, 977px" />
Be sure to check back later in the week, as these figures can change as new information emerges.
So there we have it. The first draft of the new season done and dusted!
Thanks for reading guys. If you&#8217;re on Twitter and you want follow me, I&#8217;m <a href="https://twitter.com/RichP_FPL">@RichP_FPL</a>.
&nbsp;
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Using FPL Points as a Metric Gameweek 1 Draft | Rich P’s team reveal

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