This FPL strategy article will review FPL Gameweek 6, and reveal Rich P’s team for Gameweek 7.

The Using FPL Points as a Metric series uses data including FPL points scored by position and fixture tickers, to act as a starting point for identifying transfer targets.

Last season, the team ranked 14k.

You can find out more about this series in this introductory piece here. And see our other experts’ team reveals here.

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Gameweek 6 review

A decent week in FPL this week, largely thanks to one man.

52 points and another green arrow, but only 3 players getting a return.

Ivan Toney (£7.2m) hit a hat-trick for 17 pointer, which was the highlight by some margin.

We’ve had him since Gameweek 1, and he’s been a shrewd buy, the second highest scoring player in FPL so far.

Erling Haaland (£12m) scored yet again, and Neco Williams (£4.1m) grabbed an assist, but that is it really. Still, with the template doing badly, we’ve outscored the average, so we can’t grumble really.

Andrew Robertson (£6.8m) was benched, and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) was subbed before 60 minutes, so our double Liverpool defence missed out on the clean sheet, and Mohamed Salah (£13m) blanked again.

Arsenal suffered defeat to Man United, with blanks for our assets there, Brighton conceded twice to Leicester, and Manchester City conceded away to Aston Villa.

Ruben Dias (£6m), Robertson and Pedro Neto (£5.2m) are now all surplus to requirements, and with two free transfers in hand, I’ll be using both this week at the least, maybe even a -4.

The Data

Goalkeepers

West Ham have conceded the most FPL Points to opposition goalkeepers this season, with Newcastle scoring the most so far.

We’re not really in the market for a goalkeeper in the next couple of weeks, as the plan is to wildcard in Gameweek 9, but I’d consider taking a punt on Lukasz Fabianski (£5m) with two fixtures against teams conceding the most FPL Points to Goalkeepers in the Hammers’ next 4 games.

Nick Pope (£5.1m) is obviously a decent choice against too.

Lukasz Fabianski. Picture by Getty Images.

Defenders

Bournemouth are conceding the most FPL Points to opposition defenders. The Cherries, Nottingham Forest, West Ham, Wolves and Southampton are the teams you want your defenders to be playing against.

Spurs, Arsenal, Man City, Newcastle and Chelsea are the teams scoring the most defender FPL Points.

This is an area we’re particularly interested in, given that we want to sell a defender this week. Liverpool play Wolves, so it’s potentially foolish to get rid of Robertson, whereas Dias plays Spurs.

The obvious team for us to look for a replacement from is Newcastle.

Something else to consider is our transfer target. Kieran Trippier (£5.2m) is the front runner, given the fact Newcastle play two of the five teams conceding the most FPL Points to opposition Defenders in their next two games.

Selling Robertson would leave us £1.6m to upgrade Pedro Neto (£5.2m), whereas losing Dias would only leave us £0.8m. Of course, we could alter our target, and opt for a cheaper Newcastle defender if needed.

Kieran Trippier. Picture by Getty Images.

Midfielders

Southampton, Bournemouth and Leicester are conceding the most FPL Points to opposition midfielders by some distance.

Ideally we want midfielders facing these teams. The teams that have the highest scoring Midfield Units are Brighton, Manchester City, Leeds, Arsenal and Manchester United.

Brighton look like an obvious midfield for us to invest in, given their green fixtures in the next two, and them being the highest scoring midfield unit after six games.

I’ve taken a look at Brighton’s highest scoring Midfielders, and sorted them by expected FPL Points (xFPL):

The first thing I notice here is just how much Solly March (£5m) is underperforming. 13 shots in the box, 8 on target, xG of 2.55 – but 0 goals! An xFPL of 31.7 but only 20 FPL Points to show for it.

Alexis Mac Allister (£5.6m) is on penalties, and has 4 goals in 6 games, although 3 of these came from the spot.

Brighton won’t keep getting penalties at their current rate, and with a non-penalty xG of 0.29 in those 6 games, returns seem uncertain.

I also ran a comparison between Pascal Gross (£6m) and Leandro Trossard (£6.5m):

Trossard is having more shots in the box, touches in the box and shots in general. That extra £0.5 however, is the difference between Trippier & Fabian Schar (£4.7m).

So potential combos could be Trippier & Gross or Schar & Trossard.

I’ll speak more about this in the transfers section, once I’ve decided which defender to sell. European Football means holding off on transfers as late as possible.

Pascal Gross. Picture by Getty Images.

Forwards

Nottingham Forest & Leicester are the two teams conceding the most FPL Points to opposition forwards.

Man City & Brentford are the two teams scoring the most FPL Points at the forward position.

An interesting punt could be on Alexander Isak (£7m) of Newcastle; however, I don’t really want to lose any of my Forwards yet, so I’ll watch from afar.

Alexander Isak. Picture by Getty Images.

Points Per Game Data

I look at this table to target specific fixtures, to see how teams are performing at home and away. So for my transfer targets this week, I’ll be looking at how their opponents perform either at home or away.

It’s a small sample size, but West Ham at home are in the top five teams conceding the most FPL Points to opposition at all positions. Only Everton and Bournemouth are conceding more FPL Points to Defenders at home so far.

Bournemouth are conceding the most FPL Points to opposition defenders on the road, which bodes well for Newcastle defenders again. So a short term investment in The Magpies Defence seems worthwhile.

The Cherries are also in the five teams averaging the most FPL Points conceded to opposition midfielders at home, which bodes well for any potential Brighton midfielders we pick up.

Newcastle defenders perform much better at home, but I’d back them away at West Ham as well.

Brighton midfielders are in the top five FPL point scoring midfield units both home and away, so I feel like we’re in the right ball park with these potential transfers.

Gameweek 7 Transfers

Depending on the Champions League games, the moves I have in mind are either:

Ruben Dias (£6m) & Pedro Neto (£5.2m) out for:

Kieran Trippier (£5.2m) & Pascal Grob (£6m)

Fabian Schar (£4.7m) & Leandro Trossard (£6.5m)

Alternatively, I could sell Andy Robertson (£6.8m) instead of Dias, and get both Trippier & Trossard, leaving us £0.3m in the bank as well.

I’ll spend the remaining time this week weighing up the pros and cons, and hopefully price changes don’t price me out of these moves.

Comparing Trippier and Schar looks like this:

Trippier being on set pieces will give him a higher ceiling than Schar, and the full-back also has a higher Baseline BPS. I’d say paying the extra £0.5m is worth it.

Captaincy

Normally this would be a no-brainer – Mohammed Salah (£13m) at home to Wolves.

However, Liverpool just aren’t clicking right now, and with Erling Haaland (£12m) banging in goals left, right and centre, it’s hard to ignore him. The Hub’s Predicted Points model shows Salah out on top:

You’ll also notice Haaland isn’t in sight. Projected at 5 points, the model favours Salah heavily this week.

A decision on this won’t be made until the Champions League games are done and dusted, but as it stands, I’m favouring Haaland despite the above.

See our bumper captaincy options article by Chris Tan for all the analysis you need to decide your own captain for this week

Fantasy Football Hub My Team rating

With the potential Trippier and Gross transfers, the team has scored 90% on the Hub’s My Team feature, with an 85% rating for the gameweek.

Let’s hope we can get another decent green arrow this week.

I hope you’ve found this interesting, and it would be great to hear your thoughts on it.

If you’re on Twitter and you want follow me, I’m @RichP_FPL.

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Using FPL Points as a Metric: Gameweek 7 team reveal 2022/23

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