This FPL Gameweek 19-21 strategy article reviews the FPL points as a metric team after Gameweek 18. We take a look at the data before moving on to the team for Gameweek 19, 20 & 21.

If you’re interested in reading the article that explains this in detail, you can find out more in my introduction to using FPL points as a metric.

Fantasy Premier League Tips for Blank Gameweek 27 | FPL Tips 2021/22

Gameweek 18 Review – FPL Strategy

We’ve been seeing a lot of red arrows recently, with the latest one taking us down to 94k. Match postponements didn’t help, and whilst we see plenty of managers claiming “we’re all in the same boat”, this couldn’t be much further from the truth.

We’ve seen FPL teams able to field a full 11 and have bench players, and we’ve seen teams with only 5 available players that have either had to take a massive hit or use their Free Hit chip.

The luck of the draw is basically what it’s coming down to right now, and the same issues are not impacting everyone equally.

We just have to play the hand that is dealt and hope for the best. There is an argument that whilst this negatively impacts managers with these players right now, they will benefit later on because of Double Gameweeks.

I disagree with this to an extent, because the Double Gameweeks are known in advance, giving other managers time to plan and get these players in, which negates any advantage you had.

Gameweek 18 resulted in another Red Arrow to 94k.

We had to take a -8 this week just to field nine active players. The moves of Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.5m), Douglas Luiz (£4.5m) & Brian Mbeumo (£5.4m) to Alexandre Lacazette (£8.4m), Gabriel Martinelli (£5.3m) & Phil Foden (£8.1m) actually netted us profit with a return of 20 points, leaving us a net of 12 points up from the hit.

However, Foden didn’t play due to off field issues, which is something else we couldn’t account for, so we ended up fielding eight players.

It wasn’t enough to stop the red arrow, so we’ll look at the data and try and plan our way through this minefield!

The Data – FPL Gameweek 19-21 Strategy

Goalkeepers

Goalkeepers FPL Points Conceded, Scored and their next 5 fixtures according to Points Conceded by their opposition

As we can see, it is now Norwich that have given up the most FPL points to opposition Goalkeepers so far.

Wolves, Arsenal, Watford and Southampton make up the remaining five.

Wolves are top of the table for FPL Points scored in the Goalkeeper position so far. Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea are only one point behind!

Wolves and Spurs now have decent runs of fixtures, and with Illan Meslier (£4.9m) and Leeds on the whole struggling to keep clean sheets, if I have the luxury of a goalkeeper transfer available, I might well use it.

FPL Fixture Ticker

Defenders

Defenders FPL Points Conceded, Scored and their next 5 fixtures according to Points Conceded by their opposition

No surprises in the Points Scored table, with Chelsea 131 points ahead after some monster performances from their defenders.

N’golo Kante (£4.9m) returning to the side finally resulted in clean sheet for The Blues, with Chelsea conceding in every game that he didn’t feature. It’s clear that he’s integral to their style of play and makes them more difficult to break down.

Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal and Wolves make up the top five teams scoring the most FPL points. Spurs drop out, in part due to the fact they’ve had numerous games postponed.

Wolves sit bottom of the table for points conceded, but are also scoring well at this position. They’ve conceded two goals in their last seven games.

Newcastle, Burnley, Norwich and Everton make up the teams conceding the most FPL points to opposition defences.

Looking at the fixtures, Watford, Arsenal, Everton and Man United play three of the five teams conceding the most FPL Points to opposition defensive units in their next five games. If we’re looking at a defensive transfer, we’ll be looking at these teams.

Midfielders

Midfielders FPL Points Conceded, Scored and their next 5 fixtures according to Points Conceded by their opposition

The Midfield Table shows Liverpool are over 70 points clear at the top for most FPL points scored. This is mainly due to Mohamed Salah’s (£13m) electric form. This is a 30 point reduction since my last article, with Man City closing the gap significantly after some monster midfield hauls.

Arsenal, Chelsea and West Ham complete the top five in terms of Points Scored.

Leeds have conceded the most FPL points to opposition Midfield units so far.

Arsenal, Norwich, Newcastle and Watford make up the five teams conceding the most points.

West Ham still have some lovely fixtures over the festive period, so the likes of Jarrod Bowen (£6.5m) and Pablo Fornals (£6m) should still be on radars despite some stuttering form and postponements.

Arsenal’s fixtures are starting to turn soon, but they have lots of mid-priced options returning, so might be worth holding onto.

Man United also have decent fixtures but, playing a new system, I think we need to wait and see with their midfielders.

Forwards

Forwards FPL Points Conceded, Scored and their next 5 fixtures according to Points Conceded by their opposition

Watford, Leicester, Newcastle, Crystal Palace and Southampton make up the top five teams with Forwards scoring the most FPL points so far.

A lot of these teams play two up top each week, which can sway the numbers to a certain extent.

Looking at individuals, Jamie Vardy (£10.5m) and Michail Antonio (£7.8m) have disappointed in recent weeks, but Antonio still has a fantastic run of fixtures. However, his numbers have been awful since Gameweek 4, so I wouldn’t blame anyone for jumping off. A caveat to this is that they’ve had an enforced rest, which could help him.

Further to this, Antonio has been tested positive for COVID, putting him at risk of this weekend’s game against Southampton. Holding him has been very frustrating with a combination of poor form and fixture cancellation meaning, we’ve not seen much from him.

Fortunately, David Moyes said he tested positive around a week ago and he is also double-jabbed, so he could still play this weekend.

breaking the template gameweek 19

Emmanuel Dennis (£6m) is the top scoring forward, but he is drastically over performing, so whether this continues remains to be seen. He is out-performing his xG and also his xFPL, in addition to the fact he is likely to get called up for AFCON.

Josh King (£5.8m) – who plays centrally and should be on penalties – could be a better bet. The fixtures aren’t great according to the ticker, but both are great enablers.

It is worth noting that in his last game against Brentford he was shifted to the Left Wing in what we can only assume was a tactical tweak for that game. If it continues then his appeal is reduced.

Newcastle, Everton, Norwich, Southampton and Crystal Palace are the teams conceding the most FPL points to opposition forwards, with Arsenal, Leicester and Watford just outside the bottom five.

Burnley, Newcastle, Norwich, Spurs and West Ham forwards all have decent festive fixtures.

Hopefully we finally see some returns from Chris Wood (£6.7m). Transferred into the team in Gameweek 13, his game got postponed (as they have been in Gameweeks 17 & 18), and he’s blanked against Wolves, Newcastle and West Ham.

He plays three teams near the bottom of the Forward Points Conceded table and also Leeds in his next four, so hopefully we see some returns.

Harry Kane (£12.1m) finally looked decent against Liverpool, and got very fortunate to avoid being sent off. Let’s see if he can continue in that vein of form.

Home and Away Points Scored and Conceded Tables

League Tables according to FPL Points Scored/Conceded per game

As evidenced above, most of the teams scoring the most FPL points are also conceding the least. This table is starting to get messy now with all of the postponements, but still gives us an idea of the best performing clubs doing well and those worth targeting.

I’ve also done this using points difference like goal difference:

League Table based on Points Scored Minus Points Conceded

Home and Away Data – Points Per Game Basis

The Positional Data based on Home and Away on a Points Per Game basis

The teams performing badly at home according to FPL Points Conceded per game are Watford, Norwich, Brighton, Newcastle and Wolves.

On the other hand, Norwich, Leeds, Newcastle, Southampton, and Burnley are performing poorly away from home. Note that Newcastle and Norwich are giving up plenty of points regardless of whether they’re home or away.

The teams performing well at home according to FPL Points Scored in respect of Points Per Game are Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs.

Liverpool and Man City are absolutely dominating in their home fixtures, averaging over 60 FPL Points Scored per game.

Similarly, the teams performing well away from home according to total FPL Points Scored per game are Liverpool, Chelsea, Man United, Man City and Wolves.

FPL Gameweek 19 Team

So after that deep dive into the data, here is the current lineup for Gameweek 19:

Bus Team for Gameweek 19

We have one free transfer and £0.6m in the bank. The squad is very deep now (Foster aside) so we should be well set to cope with rotation. Coping with random COVID postponements however, is a different kettle of fish.

The early plan this week is to roll the transfer. However, with COVID outbreaks at numerous clubs and midweek Cup games, we will need to revisit that pre-deadline. It’s difficult to plan anything at the moment, but if we can roll the transfer we will.

Transfers – FPL Gameweek 19/20/21 Strategy

Gameweek 19: rolling the transfer is the aim, but we will look at this again closer to the deadline.

Gameweek 20: potentially move Alexandre Lacazette (£8.4m) on when he starts a tricky run, with one eye on rolling the other transfer.

Gameweek 21: no idea right now. So much can happen between now and then. In an ideal world this could be a prime opportunity to move on from Illan Meslier (£4.9m), but it all depends on what is happening at the time.

Captaincy – FPL Gameweek 19/20/21 Strategy

Mohamed Salah (£13.1m) has games against Leeds, Leicester and Chelsea. He will very likely be my captain in 19 and 20, but we will need to see where we are in 21.

Conclusion – FPL Gameweek 19/20/21 Strategy

Well there we have it. As always, there is a lot to think about ahead of the weekend. I hope you’ve found this interesting and it would be great to hear your thoughts on it!

I’ll also take this opportunity to wish you and your loved ones a very Merry Christmas, and I hope you enjoy the Festive Period, whatever plans you have.

If you’re on Twitter and you’d want to drop me a follow, I’m @RichP_FPL. Cheers!

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FPL Gameweek 19-21 Strategy – Using FPL Points as a Metric

FPL Gameweek 19-21 Strategy – Using FPL Points as a Metric

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